Homepage / Investment / Despite Dow's peak, here's the evidence the August slowdown has arrived
Amazon says this Prime Day was its biggest shopping event ever Kudlow says President Trump is 'so dissatisfied' with China trade talks that he is keeping the pressure on As stocks regain their footing, an ominous warning looms Goldman Sachs downgrades Clorox to sell, says valuation is 'unsustainably high' How Satya Nadella has spurred a tripling of Microsoft's stock price in just over four years Kudlow says economic growth could top 4% for 'a quarter or two,' more tax cuts could be coming The one chart that explains Netflix’s stunning comeback US housing starts plunge 12% in June to a nine-month low Aerospace titans Boeing and Airbus top $110 billion in orders at Farnborough Target uses Prime Day to its advantage, logging its 'biggest online shopping day' so far this year Billionaire Marc Lasry sees bitcoin reaching up to $40,000 as it becomes more mainstream and easier to trade These are the 10 US airports where you're most likely to be hacked Amazon shares slightly higher as investors await Prime Day results Wreck of Russian warship found, believed to hold gold worth $130 billion A bullish ‘phenomenon’ in bond market is weeks away from fading, top credit strategist says Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: MS, GOOGL, TXN, UAL, NFLX & more Twitter shares up 50% since late April means most upside priced in, analyst says in downgrade EU fines Google $5 billion over Android antitrust abuse Mortgage applications fall 2.5% as buyers struggle to find affordable homes America may not have the tools to counter the next financial crisis, warn Bernanke, Geithner and Paulson Investors are getting spooked as the risk of a no-deal Brexit rises EU expected to fine Google $5 billion over Android antitrust abuse Ex-FBI chief James Comey urges Americans to vote for Democrats in midterm elections Elon Musk apologizes to British cave diver following baseless 'pedo guy' claim Disney, Comcast and Fox: All you need to know about one of the biggest media battles ever Xiaomi shares notch new high after Hong Kong, mainland China stock exchanges reach agreement The trade war is complicating China's efforts to fix its economy European markets set for a strong open amid earnings; Google in focus Hedge fund billionaire Einhorn places sixth in major poker tournament The biggest spender of political ads on Facebook? President Trump Asian stocks poised to gain after Fed's Powell gives upbeat comments; dollar firmer Stocks are setting up to break to new highs Not all FAANG stocks are created equal EU ruling may be too little, too late to stop Google's mobile dominance Cramer explains how Netflix's stock managed to taper its drop after disappointing on earnings Airbnb condemns New York City's 'bellhop politics,' threatens legal retaliation Amazon sellers say they were unfairly suspended right before Prime Day, and now have two bad choices Investor explains why 'duller' tech stocks can have better returns than 'high-flying' tech names Elon Musk is 'thin-skinned and short-tempered,' says tech VC Texas Instruments CEO Brian Crutcher resigns for violating code of conduct Google Cloud Platform fixes issues that took down Spotify, Snapchat and other popular sites Uber exec: We want to become the 'one stop' transportation app 'What a dumb hearing,' says Democrat as Congress grills tech companies on conservative bias Amazon shares rebound, report says Prime Day sales jumped 89 percent in first 12 hours of the event How to put your medical history on your iPhone in less than 5 minutes Investment chief: Watch these two big events in 2018 Even with Netflix slowing, the market rally is likely not over Cramer: Netflix subscriber weakness debunks the 'sky's the limit' theory on the stock Netflix is looking at watch time as a new area of growth, but the competition is stiff Why Nobel laureate Richard Thaler follows Warren Buffett's advice to avoid bitcoin Rolls-Royce is developing tiny 'cockroach' robots to crawl in and fix airplane engines After Netflix plunge, Wall Street analysts forecast just tame returns ahead for the once high-flying FANG group Roku shares rise after analyst raises streaming video company's price target due to customer growth China is investing 9 times more into Europe than into North America, report reveals Amazon says US Prime Day sales 'so far bigger than ever' as glitch is resolved Netflix is on pace for its worst day in two years US lumber producers see huge opportunity, rush to expand San Francisco to consider tax on companies to help homeless Homebuilder sentiment, still high, stalls as tariffs, labor and land drive up costs Powell backs more rate hikes as economy growing 'considerably stronger' Netflix history is filled with big stock declines – like today – followed by bigger rebounds Intel shares get downgraded by Evercore ISI due to rising competition from Nvidia, AMD Petco aims to reinvent the pet store with something you can't buy online Genetic testing is coming of age, but for consumers it's buyer beware Tech 'FAANG' was the most-crowded trade in the world heading into the Netflix implosion, survey shows Netflix weak subscriber growth may indicate a 'maturity wall' that could whack the stock even more: Analyst This chart may be predicting the bull market's demise Wall Street says Netflix's stock plunge is a ‘compelling’ buying opportunity because the streaming giant ‘never misses twice’ Tesla sinks after Musk tweets, again Boeing announces new division devoted to flying taxis Stocks making the biggest move premarket: NFLX, UNH, GS, AMZN, WMT & more Deutsche Bank downgrades Netflix, but says big subscriber miss is not 'thesis changing' IBM is experimenting with a cryptocurrency that’s pegged to the US dollar North Korea and Zimbabwe: A friendship explained Virgin Galactic spinoff Orbit to launch rockets from the UK with space deal Artificial intelligence will create more jobs than it destroys? That’s what PwC says ‘Treasonous’ Trump and ‘Putin’s poodle:' Scathing headlines follow the Trump-Putin summit China’s fintech companies offer ‘enormous’ opportunity, investment manager says Trump's performance at summit with Putin was 'unprecedented,' experts say Walmart and Microsoft link up on cloud technology as they both battle Amazon European stocks seen mixed amid earnings; Fed’s Powell to address Congress How I knew I should quit my day job and run my start-up full-time: Viral website founder China's stocks have been trounced, but the trade war may ultimately be good news for those shares Billionaire tech investor Peter Thiel bets on crypto start-up Block.one Asian shares subdued open after mixed close on Wall Street; energy stocks under pressure Amazon cloud hits snags after Amazon Prime Day downtime Netflix isn't doomed by one quarter unless people start questioning the long-term investor thesis Tech stocks set to sink on Tuesday after rough evening for ‘FANG’ Netflix plummets after missing big on subscriber growth This wristband lets humans control machines with their minds The U.S. has a rocky history convincing Russia to extradite computer criminals Amazon suffers glitches at the start of Prime Day Jeff Bezos is now the richest man in modern history 'The United States has been foolish': Read Trump and Putin's full exchange Goldman Sachs recommends these 5 highly profitable companies — including Nvidia — to combat rising inflation Goldman Sachs releases 'tactical' stock picks for this earnings season Three red flags for Netflix ahead of its earnings report The bond market may be raising recession fears, but don't expect one anytime soon Cramer: Banks are 'making fortunes' but are still as hated as they were during the financial crisis Putin told Trump at summit: Russia never meddled in US election


Despite Dow's peak, here's the evidence the August slowdown has arrived

Professional traders are not impressed with the Dow rally, driven by Boeing, Apple and a few banks.

August is typically a down month: The S&P 500 has on average dropped 2.1 percent this month since 2010, according to the analytics tool Kensho. Right on schedule, the August slowdown has emerged.

The issue is whether this will morph into something bigger. Consider the following:

  1. The S&P 500, after an exceptionally strong June, has gotten stuck and is treading water for the past three weeks.
  2. After a strong summer, the Russell 2000 has dropped below its 50-day moving average and has been down for six of the last eight trading sessions.
  3. There has been a palpable slowdown in the pace of high-momentum technology shares. They are no longer on the “new highs” list. FANG stocks have lost momentum. Amazon is failing at its 50-day moving average. Google parent Alphabet has broken its uptrend. Netflix gapped up on good earnings and guidance, but has been drifting lower since then.

“FAANG” this week

Amazon: down 3.2 percent
Netflix: down 2.6 percent
Facebook: down 2.2 percent
Google: down 1.9 percent
Apple: up 4.1 percent

The other big tech momentum play — semiconductors — has also weakened (NVIDIA is the exception). The S&P Semiconductor ETF (XSD) topped out in June and is about 7 percent off its highs.

Semis this week

Cirrus Logic: down 5.3 percent
Advanced Micro Devices: down 4.8 percent
Micron Technology: down 3.7 percent
Skyworks Solutions: down 2.2 percent

Energy stocks, which were expected to supply a very large part of the earnings gains for Q2 and Q3, have been disappointing. Shares of Apache, Oasis, Concho and Noble Energy are all down notably on earnings.

Energy earnings disappoint
(this week)

Pioneer Natural Resources: down 17 percent
Apache: down 12 percent
Noble Energy: down 12 percent
Concho Resources: down 10 percent

Does the loss of momentum names necessarily mean the rally is over? No. Other sectors may rotate into leadership positions. There is some indication this is happening already. We have seen financials make a modest move recently — the S&P Financial Sector hit a nine-year high today. And industrial names — particularly defense and those with global exposure — remain strong.

Financials at new highs: Morgan Stanley, Lincoln National, PNC, American Express, Hartford Financials, Allstate, Travelers, Progressive, Chubb, Aon.

Industrials at new highs: Rockwell Collins, Deere, Lockheed Martin, Honeywell, Raytheon, Northrup Grumman.

However, so much money is in the big momentum names (FANG, Semis), that you need to be very vigilant. When you are dealing with momentum stocks, a shift in momentum will easily initiate a shift in positioning — in other words, one day, you just get a hell of a lot of people dumping out. This usually occurs at inflection points for stocks that tell short-term investors that a longer-term uptrend is in trouble.

Are we there yet? It’s not clear, but it is clear that price momentum is waning.

A different, slightly more troubling, issue is the market response to what can only be described as excellent earnings. Bulls were looking for a further breakout on earnings, but the overall reaction of the market has been, “meh.”

Bulls are arguing that the S&P saw its run-up going into earnings season and it is typical to consolidate (move sideways) after such a move. That is the crux of the debate.

Disclosure: NBCUniversal, parent of CNBC, is a minority investor in Kensho.

Source: Investment Cnbc
Despite Dow's peak, here's the evidence the August slowdown has arrived

Comments are closed.