Homepage / Asia / Global trade has been booming — but that may be about to fall apart
China urges restraint amid war of words between Trump and North Korea Britain's Deliveroo is now worth over $2 billion after raising $385 million Unilever to buy Carver Korea for $2.7 billion Japan PM Abe announces $17.8 billion economic stimulus package Europe's most important economic policymaker may soon be losing his job Japan's Abe will reportedly announce snap elections for next month Fitch: Some of China's first local government bonds are likely to default European markets seen lower on German election result; Brexit talks resume Trump-like politician will get final say on New Zealand's next government China banned new cryptocurrencies, but a Macau company still plans $500 million token sale Schneider Electric CEO: Aveva acquisition combines software and engineering strengths Kushner used private email to communicate with White House colleagues, his lawyer says White House issues updated travel ban, with fresh restrictions on who can enter US Asian shares to focus on German, New Zealand election results Italy's anti-establishment party is softening its stance on Europe as a new leader is appointed Euro slips after German election reveals surprising far-right support Mazda's new MX-5 Miata retractable fastback is pint-sized perfection Merkel on track for fourth term as German chancellor; far-right party set to enter parliament for first time Diners are on the hunt for Instagram-worthy experiences, and restaurants embrace the moment Silicon Valley's men are embracing 'men's rights' as pushback against gender equality movement The new Apple Watch finally freed me from my phone The CEO who pulled the plug on a neo-Nazi site says he did it to protect his company Uber is reportedly ready to make concessions to reverse London license decision Trump tweets threats to North Korea after UN speech by rogue nation's foreign minister Six injured in London after group of males spray a substance thought to be acid Why the Rolling Stones hope fans will buy a $72 version of an album Mick Jagger once 'rubbished' US bombers fly off North Korea's coast in show of force This robotic smart glove is like wearing a bionic hand I'm perfectly happy with the iPhone 8 I bought — there's no need to wait for the X UK credit rating downgrade based on 'outdated' Brexit view, government says China bans refined oil product exports to North Korea as part of UN economic sanctions Japan needs to also push for dialogue with North Korea, not just sanctions: China's top diplomat Mark Zuckerberg is handling Facebook's Russian meddling issue by following a familiar playbook Investor group seeks probe into SEC hack, urges data rules delay After losing a massive deal with Apple, chip company Imagination will sell itself for $742.5 million Uber CEO on losing London license: 'There is a high cost to a bad reputation' Facebook’s Frankenstein moment: Facebook may have created something it can't fully control Mark Zuckerberg will sell up to 75 million Facebook shares, now worth $12.8 billion, over 18 months Facebook cancels plan to change ownership share structure Facebook settles investor lawsuit over Zuckerberg's control of the company Some people are learning to code in their 60s, 70s or 80s Apple's shed $50 billion — more than eBay, Target or Ford — since it unveiled the new iPhone How 2 young guys went from the brink of bankruptcy to selling their business for $300 million Amazon's restaurant delivery service still needs to solve one major problem Boeing sees more ‘excitement about space’ now than in the last few decades New drug test can detect cocaine in a fingerprint in seconds Strategist predicts bitcoin, digital currency trading volume will 'soon surpass' Apple's Apple CEO Tim Cook: iPhone 8 and Apple Watch Series 3 are sold out in some places Josh Brown: Here's what should keep Facebook shareholders up at night The lines for new iPhones at the Apple Store are getting shorter every year Billionaire investor Jim Breyer on why big technology growth stocks will keep surging Sleep pods are becoming increasingly common at airports PRO Talks: Billionaire tech investor Jim Breyer on how A.I. will change everything Art Cashin: Kim Jong Un faces 'dire straits' without Chinese financial backing Goldman downgrades Tiffany shares on ‘fresh weakness’ in sales of higher-priced jewelry Top VC deals this week: Electric scooters, Slack, and a Chinese self-driving car firm Uber slams London regulators for caving in to a 'small number of people', launches petition Amazon Restaurants aims to simplify food delivery, sending GrubHub shares lower In major new speech, UK leader Theresa May says UK hoping for a 'creative and practical' Brexit Finish Line shares sink on underwhelming earnings, as same-store sales wane Gene Munster: Expect a 'rocky day' for Apple's stock; shorter lines for the iPhone 8 Uber's biggest UK competitor is celebrating the company's ban by offering massive discounts Your first trade for Friday, September 22 Alibaba is much more than just China's e-commerce platform Walmart tests delivering groceries straight to fridge An inside look at the Museum of Ice Cream Lyft thinks it can forge a business in helping low-income seniors Apocalyptic emergency alert flashes on TVs, freaking out Californians London police charge 18-year-old man over Parsons Green bomb attack Gatorade pays California $300,000 and promises to not badmouth water Buy Apple because more expensive $1,000 iPhone X will boost its profit: Analyst ‘We don't want a fat Europe, we want a fit Europe,’ says German politician Early movers: TMUS, S, AAPL, FB, TSLA, CAG, WMT & more UK fintech start-up looks to raise $54 million investment for global expansion White House softens trade stance as tax reform fight approaches: 'We need the votes there' Wireless carriers T-Mobile, Sprint are close to agreeing to merger terms Uber loses its licence to operate in London Russia steps in to prevent 'domino effect' in its banking sector — but confidence concerns linger Jamie Dimon lays into bitcoin again, says it’s ‘worth nothing’ Euro zone businesses end the third quarter on a high note 'I am afraid': First far-right party set to enter German parliament in over half a century Aston Martin CEO: Green vehicle regulations are meaningless and 'just spin' China state media: Pulling out of Iran deal would set 'bad precedent' for North Korea European stocks seen lower on geopolitics; Brexit speech from UK PM on the radar Bitcoin is fiat money, too German elections: Why hungry stock traders should be wary of Sunday's vote German elections — here's all you need to know about Sunday's vote South Korea approves $8 million aid for the North even as Kim and Trump trade insults and threats North Korea foreign minister says may detonate nuclear bomb in Pacific Ocean, reports South Korea media China's about to get its first new central bank head in 15 years Hewlett Packard Enterprise said to be slashing 10% of its staff Cramer points to stocks that become money magnets during a correction Cramer finds a new way to look at 'broken stocks' in a sell-off North Korea leader Kim says 'deranged' Trump 'will face results beyond his expectation' Software company MongoDB seeks to raise $100 million in IPO Here's what really terrifies Wall Street about the SEC hack Read Mark Zuckerberg's full remarks on Facebook's efforts to 'protect election integrity' Trader bets against Apple — here’s how low he thinks it will go SEC system that was breached is decades old, says former SEC attorney Facebook provided suspected Russian-linked election ads to Congress

Asia

Global trade has been booming — but that may be about to fall apart

A burst of global trade starting from the end of last year has been driving Asia’s economic growth, but it isn’t clear whether the region can count on it to continue.

The recent step up in trade was sizable: South Korea, for one, reported that July exports jumped around 20 percent from the same month last year. The global trade pickup since the fourth quarter of 2016 has been particularly notable because it followed about five years of malaise.

Still, some analysts were pessimistic about what the next year holds.

“Things are starting to get messy,” Rob Carnell, chief economist for Asia at ING, said in a note this week, pointing to factors including tensions over North Korea’s missile program.

Carnell explained that the last few months of trade increases relied to a large extent on earlier weakness. “Now the easy growth is over, the export path ahead looks harder going,” he said.

The ING economist also noted that some countries have benefited from their currencies suddenly becoming stronger in the face of a weakening dollar, but that may not continue for long.

Others also pointed to headwinds ahead.

Freya Beamish, chief Asia economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, told CNBC on Tuesday that she didn’t expect the trade growth to continue in Asia. Instead, she said, a slowdown would likely be apparent in fourth-quarter data.

“Demand in the U.S. and Europe is strong. In China, it’s slowing rapidly,” she said, adding she expected those developed markets to cool toward the end of next year. “That story has rolled over pretty quickly.”

Some economists said they were expecting a moderation ahead, rather than a major move up or down.

Louis Kuijs, head of Asia economics at Oxford Economics, said he expected global trade growth peaked in the first quarter and would moderate for the rest of the year: “It will still be better than 2015 and most of last year,” he said.

“The problem is that China kick started this global trade recovery,” he added. “China’s imports were very strong, but China’s imports are now cooling.”

Kuijs noted he didn’t expect European and U.S. economic growth, which wasn’t really accelerating, to offset a slowing China.

Others were much more optimistic.

It’s not “a one-pony show” centered on China, said Klaus Baader, chief Asia-Pacific economist at Societe Generale.

Instead, while he said he expected trade growth will moderate, he remained optimistic, pointing to a revival in the technology cycle.

“It’s based on a few areas of innovation or increasing penetration that are unlikely to disappear: the iPhone 7 and also the move to wireless electronics. It requires a lot more semiconductors and various electronic components. I don’t think the trend will disappear quickly,” he said.

Baader predicted that increasing “electronification,” including the development of the so-called internet of things and autonomous vehicles, would spur stronger trade growth for the next two years.

Source: cnbc china
Global trade has been booming — but that may be about to fall apart

Comments are closed.