Homepage / Currency / The 'normalization' of the far right: Why Austria's election matters
Bond market flashing warning sign even as stocks rally to new highs Mohawk Tribe sues Microsoft, Amazon for patent infringement Bitcoin plunges nearly 9% on fears of greater oversight from US regulators US 10-year yield flashes possible warning: Dallas Fed's Kaplan Chinese fintech company Qudian spikes more than 40 percent in IPO 'The housing market can't take the shock of a natural event,' real estate economist warns The Apple Watch is finally taking off, says analyst By selling now, investors risk missing an additional 'melt-up' in the market Amazon's next big bet is letting you communicate without a smartphone, says Alexa's chief scientist Cramer: IBM is not a Warren Buffett story anymore but about 'reignition of earnings' IBM sees biggest jump in 8 years after earnings beat Rising seas threaten nearly $1 trillion worth of US homes, says Zillow Germany's Hochtief confirms $20 billion bid for Spain's Abertis Amazon's $13.7 billion bet on online grocery ordering hasn't convinced shoppers to stay home The same federal lawmakers who regulate Amazon are wooing the company in the race for HQ2 OPEC reportedly favors 9-month extension to output cut deal in bid to boost oil prices Stephen Curry’s new shoe will spark an Under Armour turnaround: Analyst Apple and GE are writing software to help detect when jet engines could fail Merck shares jump after Citi upgrade on stronger cancer drug sales US investors should get some international exposure Elon Musk is 'fixated on Mars' but Bezos and I want space to better Earth, says Richard Branson Hurricanes Harvey and Irma drive housing starts down to a one-year low When the revolution eats itself Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: CVX, MGM, ANTM, IBM, CREE, AMZN & more Hillary Clinton says US threats of war with North Korea are 'dangerous' and 'short-sighted' Twitter’s new user rules crack down on nudity and 'unwanted sexual advances' The only thing scary about the Dow is that nothing seems to scare it Economist lays out a ‘concerning’ trend for Apple stock 1 billion users could be using 5G by 2023 with China set to dominate, study says The big question for US cities: Is Amazon’s HQ2 worth the price? Google and Goldman Sachs are two of the most active investors in blockchain firms Iraq calls on BP to 'quickly' develop disputed oilfields after seizing areas of Kirkuk Amazon, eBay accused of ‘profiting’ from tax fraud in UK JPMorgan buys fintech start-up WePay WhatsApp is blocked in China and VPNs are being hit as the Communist Party Congress begins Xi Jinping makes big promises for China's economic future Akzo Nobel issues profit warning after third-quarter earnings miss Boeing says Bombardier jets could still face hefty duties even if they are assembled in Alabama European shares expected to open on a positive note as earnings season picks up the pace InterContinental is bringing two new hotel brands to Asia India's troubled banks desperately need more money — but government help just isn't coming An upcoming fintech IPO is set to be 2017's largest Chinese listing in the US Amazon has brought benefits—and disruption—to Seattle Mobileye: Without safety standards self-driving cars risk being an 'expensive science experiment' Chinese President Xi Jinping touts successes of socialism at Communist Party Congress Former Tesla factory workers allege racial harassment in new lawsuit Crypto venture firm Blockchain Capital is raising $150 million for two funds Asia markets to keep an eye on China's Party Congress as dollar firms Cramer Remix: The big problem that triggered Netflix’s decline A.I. company CEO: Big data is not a visualization problem, it's a human scale problem Cramer pushes back against 'peak earnings' theory with 4 cheap stocks This family bet it all on bitcoin IBM set to report earnings after the bell Magic Leap gets another $502 million in funding for its mysterious product Here are 4 top software stock ideas from Cowen Alphabet says Sidewalk Labs unit will build a model urban district in Toronto Don't doubt Elon Musk, says astronaut who spent a year in space Traders bet on obscure e-commerce stock in speculation over bitcoin's blockchain technology Billionaire Mark Cuban on running for President in 2020: ‘If I was single, I would do it. For sure’ Facebook executive Regina Dugan leaves experimental hardware group after 18 months Tech's 'winner take all' system is making valuations spike, says NYU professor Market-beating value investor Bill Nygren on why he's bullish on Netflix, General Electric Biggest risk to Netflix is a $7-per-month Amazon streaming service, analyst Mark Mahaney says Not every Wall Street analyst is gaga over Netflix Rally continues, but 'this is kind of how bull markets end,' Bank of America strategist says Fund managers bet on rising interest rates but not on tax-cut boost for stocks A track record of success: The 5 stocks that have crushed it year after year Tesla employees detail how they were fired, claim dismissals were not performance-related Volvo unveils Polestar 1 electric sports coupe, its bid to take on Tesla Why Google is terrified about Alexa, and what it's doing in response ChargePoint hires Uber EMEA policy chief as its top Europe exec Analyst says ‘nobody can compete’ with Tesla in China Microsoft's big new Windows 10 update rolls out today, here's what's new Cramer: Analysts wonder whether Netflix's strong growth can last Mexico's tech industry is booming as Trump's anti-immigration stance pushes workers abroad Economic optimism drives stockmarket highs Homebuilder confidence jumps to 6-month high in October GM's Cruise will test self-driving cars in New York in 2018 Google just unveiled its first custom smartphone chip that helps you take better pictures Netflix's Reed Hastings joins Forbes list of rich Americans for the first time This former Soviet nation plans to launch its own cryptocurrency Google is rolling out advanced Gmail security for government officials and journalists Wall Street gushes over Netflix, says it has reached ‘escape velocity’ Google Maps is discontinuing a feature that converted walking directions to calories Google's new Pixel phones are kind of boring and you can get more for your money elsewhere Microsoft is rolling out a bunch of new PCs, including a laptop with a charge that lasts 17 hours Goldman: Bet against GE, dividend cut is coming Garmin’s Speak puts Alexa-powered navigation in your car Trump may open US wallet for debt-ridden NATO ally Greece at urgent time Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: UNH, MS, JNJ, HOG, CMA, NFLX & more Trump's fortune drops to $3.1 billion, ties Snap's Evan Spiegel on new Forbes 400 rich list Goldman sees US-Iran tensions presenting long-term threat to global oil supply Bitcoin is a 'speculative bubble' and unlikely to become a real currency, UBS says More airlines are offering free Wi-Fi for messaging services Bad news for the bulls: There are now more bulls Boeing versus Bombardier: Here’s what happens next Morgan Stanley shares jump to 9-year high after earnings beat the Street on strong wealth management Theme park owner sees its shares tank after warning that terrorism is hitting profits Snap teams with NBCUniversal in drive for TV shows on Snapchat Hillary Clinton says she will 'not run again' for president but will continue to call out Trump

Currency, United States Finance

The 'normalization' of the far right: Why Austria's election matters

Austria might not have the biggest prominence on the political stage but as a central European power, bridging eastern and western Europe, its politics can influence others around it.

As the country goes to the polls for parliamentary elections this weekend, CNBC looks at why the vote matters.

Austrian voters are heading to the polls Sunday in a parliamentary election expected to enable the far-right Freedom Party to enter a coalition government, marking an increasing trend in Europe.

If that happens, Austria will be the latest country to see a far-right, nationalist and anti-immigration party — the Freedom Party of Austria (FPO), in this case — do well in a popular vote.

Last month, the far-right, anti-immigration Alternative for Germany (AfD) party gained enough votes to enter the German Bundestag for the first time and, earlier this year, the Front National led by Marine Le Pen, was a forerunner in France’s presidential election.

In Austria’s presidential election in late 2016, the FPO’s far-right candidate Norbert Hofer lost to the former leader of the Green party, Alexander Van der Bellen. But in parliamentary elections this Sunday, the FPO is expected to do well.

In a European context, Austria is interesting because it has seen one of the strongest public backlashes to immigration following the continent’s migration crisis in 2015.

Like other eastern European countries, the Alpine nation wanted to be exempt from a European Commission plan to relocate and redistribute around 160,000 asylum seekers throughout Europe to ease the pressure on certain countries at the forefront of migrant inflows, telling the EU earlier this year that it had already fulfilled its obligation to take in refugees (it accepted 90,000 in 2015).

As such, negative public sentiment has influenced the main political parties in Austria to call for tougher immigration policies and the migrant issue is seen as having played into the hands of the right.

The latest opinion poll (and last poll before the election) showed the conservative, center-right Austrian People’s Party (OVP) is expected to win the largest share of the vote on Sunday, with 33 percent of the vote. The poll was conducted by Research Affairs for the Osterreich newspaper on October 9.

Meanwhile, the right-wing Freedom Party is vying for second place — and the role of kingmaker — with 27 percent of the vote, closely followed by the center-left Social Democrats (SPO) with 23 percent of the vote. Christian Kern, Austria’s incumbent chancellor, is the leader of the SPO.

It’s now widely predicted that Sebastian Kurz, the 31-year-old foreign minister and leader of the Austrian People’s Party, is set to win the election and become the next chancellor, with the Freedom Party (FPO) likely to serve as his junior partner.

This scenario would mean the “breaking with the decades-old tradition of a grand coalition between OVP and the Social Democrats of incumbent Chancellor Christian Kern,” Wolfango Piccoli, co-president of risk consultancy Teneo Intelligence, said in a note earlier this week.

Analysts predict that the OVP is far more likely to form a coalition with the Freedom Party given that the last coalition with the SPO was beset with friction and deadlock before it finally broke down earlier this year, triggering the forthcoming elections.

“It looks as if the far-right Freedom Party is heading back into government,” Greg Fuzesi, an economist at JPMorgan, said in a note this week. “This raises questions about Austria’s attitude towards the EU. We note that the FPO has moderated its tone significantly, even though it has sympathized with euro-sceptic parties elsewhere (e.g. the French National Front).”

Exit polls and first projections are due as of 5 p.m. CEST (11 a.m. ET) Sunday; the interior minister usually declares a preliminary result around 7:30 p.m. (1:30 p.m. ET), according to Carsten Nickel, deputy director of research at Teneo Intelligence.

“This will, however, exclude postal votes, which will only be counted on 16 October… (although) the power balance between the large parties should be clear relatively soon on Sunday evening. Even a center-left coalition of all three small parties with the SPO would have no chance of overtaking the OVP and FPO,” Nickel said in a note Wednesday.

While the far-right Freedom Party, led by Heinz-Christian Strache, now explicitly rejects Oxit (Austria’s exit from the EU) it remains broadly euroskeptic, according to JPMorgan’s Fuzesi, arguing for deeper European Union and euro zone reform, clearer division of responsibility between the EU and member states, and reduced EU bureaucracy.

“Overall, we suspect that Austria will support EU reform, but will take a stance that is similarly cautious to that of Germany,” Fuzesi said, adding that the anti-immigration (and mainly anti-Islam) party would likely maintain its “harder line… in managing integration in Austria and the EU’s external borders.”

Other economists have warned that the election is not being given enough attention despite the fact that another populist party was expected to re-enter government.

“The parliamentary election on October 15 has so far not been on Europe’s radar screen. Wrongly so, as Austria could become (once again) the first core euro zone country with a populist party in government,” Carsten Brzeski, chief economist at ING in Germany, said in a note Monday.

“At the end of a year in which populist parties had threatened the survival of the entire euro zone, the Austrian election could be an interesting hint for the entire euro zone: populism is not dead but the next stage of populism is acceptable populism,” he said.

Brzeski added that the Austrian election could be “an important and interesting hint and precedent for the rest of the euro zone.”

Follow CNBC International on Twitter and Facebook.

Source: cnbc
The 'normalization' of the far right: Why Austria's election matters

Comments are closed.