Homepage / Currency / When the revolution eats itself
Google and Facebook are watching our every move online. It's time to make them stop Daymond John tells shy airline passenger: You should have talked to me on the plane South Korea says it has no plans to shut down cryptocurrency trading AMD shares surge as Wall Street analysts say the chipmaker is ‘executing on all fronts’ James Altucher, the face of bitcoin, says he’s happy about Facebook’s cryptocurrency ad ban Pending home sales eke out 0.5 percent gain in December as supply shrinks to record low Uber is testing bike sharing in San Francisco The real source of the internet's problems might be the advertising business Game publisher EA's sales forecast tops estimates, sending shares higher GE will likely be dropped from the Dow, Deutsche Bank predicts Samsung surpasses Intel as world's biggest chipmaker for the first time Apple could be the best of the bunch in this tech earnings avalanche The 9-year stock rally still has 'years left,' says one of Wall Street's most bullish strategists Apple: We would never degrade the iPhone experience to get users to buy new phones Bitcoin headed for biggest monthly drop since January 2015 with nearly $60 billion of value wiped off ADP boosts forecast as new tax law spurs demand China 'will open even wider to the UK,' says Prime Minister Li Keqiang Big market swings are something you’re going to have to get used to, says Wells Fargo The dollar keeps weakening. Is that good news for the world? Apple downgraded by BMO, expects iPhone maker to slash revenue forecast this week SoftBank buys majority stake in Japanese messaging giant Line’s mobile division Rising interest rates cause a 2.6% pullback in weekly mortgage applications Trump's State of the Union address 'less hard' than first feared in Asia Trump vows to protect US intellectual property, without naming China Blockchain technology to boost Microsoft earnings, trader says Fujifilm to take over Xerox and combine it into the joint venture Fuji Xerox Samsung is making chips designed to mine cryptocurrencies like bitcoin There’s a risk of market turbulence, but it’s unlikely to hit until 2019, says Santander chairman We'll see up to a 15 percent correction in 2018, Swiss bank CEO says Japan's biggest messaging app Line is planning to launch a cryptocurrency exchange Quicksilver surfwear CEO missing at sea off the coast of France Venezuela says will pre-sell 'petro' cryptocurrency on Feb. 20 Nintendo ups its Switch sales expectations to 15 million units after profits rise 261% European markets seen mixed amid earnings and economic data The UK wants free trade with China. Beijing has its own goals Santander fourth-quarter net profit down 4 percent on US impairments The man who almost became ambassador to South Korea just warned about US plans for North Korea China's Leshi Internet flags $1.8 billion loss for 2017, citing conglomerate cash crunch South Korea says it uncovered about $600 million in cryptocurrency crimes Asia became less democratic in 2017 Al Gore's investment firm backs start-up created by Facebook co-founder Theresa May says she wants a free trade deal with China Chinese manufacturing weaker than expected in January Webpass is leaving Boston in latest sign of Google Fiber’s shrinking ambitions Samsung posts record fourth-quarter profit Asian shares look set for more declines as Wall Street sells off for a second day Don't count insurers out yet after Amazon-Berkshire-JP Morgan move Amazon's health care move could be a big win for consumer health start-ups Red Hat buys CoreOS, a start-up that sold tech developed by Google Here’s what Amazon told employees today about its landmark deal to deliver better health care Top official resigns after false missile alert in Hawaii Crazy odds: These online traders bet on the chaos of Washington and the Trump administration AMD falls despite beating Q4 estimates Facebook ban on bitcoin ads latest in very bad day for cryptocurrencies Indian man dies after being sucked into an MRI machine while carrying an oxygen cylinder Advice for Jeff Bezos, Warren Buffett and Jamie Dimon from a failed effort to control health costs Toys R Us poor holiday sales cast doubts on its future and could force renegotiation of loan terms The Apple sell-off is a buying opportunity into earnings, says trader Google partnership on mobile cloud services drives up MobileIron shares Facebook is banning all ads promoting cryptocurrencies — including bitcoin and ICOs Amazon's moves in health care over the last year are finally starting to make sense Buffett is getting a second chance to partner with Bezos after missing on Amazon as an investment How Pencils of Promise got a $1 million donation from an anonymous bitcoin multi-millionaire Amazon's home devices could be a key to cheaper health care, tech investor Roger McNamee says Two ex-Google engineers built an entirely different kind of self-driving car Cryptocurrencies join the global financial market sell-off as bitcoin drops 7% A travel agent is trying to charge fees for sunbeds Most of the tax cut windfall will boost buybacks and dividends, not workers' pockets, survey predicts The professor who wrote the book on making addictive technology is having second thoughts Trump's immigration policies are 'economic poison' that will cost taxpayers billions Airbnb trolls President Trump ahead of the State of the Union The iPhone X's $1,000 price tag scared everyone away Drop, a rewards app start-up, snags Airbnb's former head of engineering SEC halts one of the largest 'ICOs' ever as it wades deeper into the murky world of cryptocurrency offerings Passing on sanctions, Trump goes even softer on Russia than expected Buy insurers on dip as new initiative from Amazon, Berkshire and JP Morgan is ‘more bark than bite’: Analyst High schools stock up on Narcan to combat teen opioid crisis in US Apple will finally replace the fax machine in health care Apple is reportedly delaying new iOS features until next year because of quality problems Bond expert predicts a ‘wall of buying’ in Treasurys will protect the stock market Home prices surge to new high, up 6.2% in November Noted tech investor says the sector is not the best place to invest right now Sterling predicted to hit pre-Brexit vote level before the end of 2018 Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: AMZN, BRKB, JPM, AAPL, BX, TSLA & more Bitcoin boom to give AMD earnings a boost, says MKM Partners Apple shares fall again on another report of fading iPhone X demand Trump advisor Cohn: President to focus on $1.5 trillion infrastructure plan in State of the Union Why don't foreign investors take fright more often? The dollar is doing something it hasn’t done since 1987 UnitedHealth, CVS plunge on Bezos, Buffett and Dimon plan to improve U.S. health care Amazon, Berkshire and JPMorgan Chase to team in landmark new health care company Can earnings afford to slow down? 'Enemies of the USA': Russia slams America's list of oligarchs with ties to Putin The app that exposed the location of military bases with a heat map is reviewing its features For his next act, former Amex CEO Ken Chenault turns his focus on Silicon Valley Child experts: Just say ‘no’ to Facebook’s kids app Ryanair agrees to recognize British pilots union for first time Arab states are 'determined' to stick with reforms despite deepening 'frustration', IMF says The US 'oligarch list' is strikingly similar to Forbes’ richest Russians ranking Indian ride-hailing firm Ola expands to Australia to take on Uber

Currency

When the revolution eats itself

WHEN a revolution happens, the consequences are not obvious straight away. The British referendum on EU membership in June 2016 was seen as a revolt of ordinary people against a globalised elite. The politicians who led the Leave campaign did not seem to expect to win; as wags remarked, they were like “the dog that caught the car”.

This helps to explain the general chaos that has enveloped British policy since the result. The Leave campaign had contained two contradictions. The first was that Britain could have all the advantages of EU membership without the bother of actually belonging; the country could “have its cake and eat it” as Boris Johnson, Leave campaigner and now foreign secretary put it. The second was the split between the free market, Liberal brexiters, who envisaged Britain as open to the world, and the nativist camp led by Nigel Farage.

  • When the revolution eats itself

  • How two local referendums might affect Italy’s future

  • An unwelcome rise in obesity

  • Bosnia’s stand-ups jest about genocide

  • Transcript: Interview with Hillary Clinton

  • A bomb blast in Somalia’s capital exposes the government’s failures

Theresa May, who took office as prime minister in the wake of the referendum, has struggled to reconcile these two camps. It took Britain a long time to trigger the Article 50 process for leaving the EU and the talks have since got bogged down (as Leavers insisted they wouldn’t be) on issues such as the size of the financial commitments the UK should continue to meet. 

Impatience is rising and the leadership is turning on itself. One camp wants Mrs May to sack Mr Johnson, who has been writing articles clearly dissenting from the government line; another camp wants to see the back of Philip Hammond, the chancellor, who is taking a cautious view of post-Brexit economic prospects. It seems likely that Mr Hammond is paying attention to the concerns of those in business and finance who expected Britain to take a pragmatic approach. Instead the ideologues are outflanking the pragmatists.

But it is not clear whether the government can afford, politically, to do what business leaders want: settle the bill with the EU and stay in the single markets and customs union. Brexiters will see this as a betrayal. And the Conservatives will get no help from the Labour party, which has a clear political interest in seeing the negotiations fail. The party can simply demand that the government deliver on the Leave campaign promises, knowing that this will be impossible.

We are at the stage of the battle between the Girondins and the Jacobins in the French revolution. The Girondins may have helped to bring down Louis XVI but they found themselves outflanked by the Jacobins who in turn were consumed by the violence they unleashed. There is now lots of talk of “no deal”, creating the risk of a chaotic breakdown in trade, with backlogs of lorries from Dover to the M25. This is crazy stuff. While the Conservatives are battling with each other, the only cause they are serving is that of Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour party.

Let me sketch out a plausible outcome. In a last minute-deal in early 2019, Mrs May gives in on the main issues to the EU—on money, the European Court of Justice and migration. This is seen as a betrayal by her backbenchers, who force her out. A new prime minister takes over. That person calls an election—possibly on the grounds of repudiating the deal or merely to give themselves a mandate. With the Conservatives in a mess, Labour sweeps to power with a manifesto promising higher taxes on individuals and companies, nationalisation and changes to the labour market to enhance workers’ rights.

This is where the economic and political risk comes in. In the aftermath of the referendum, the pound plunged but the UK stockmarket did fairly well (in local currency terms) because of the overseas earnings of many listed companies. Since then, it has been pretty clear that the markets have been happiest when a deal with the EU looks more plausible. But a post-Brexit, Corbyn-led Britain would prompt international investors to fundamentally reassess their view of the economy. For 30 years or more, Britain has been seen as a welcome home for international capital, an English-speaking, business-friendly place for companies to base themselves inside the EU. Those advantages would have gone. There would not be an overnight exodus, but the supply of new investment would stop and existing businesses would reconsider their position. The economy would take a hit and that would in turn limit the ability of the Bank of England to support the pound with higher rates; so both sterling and the stockmarket might suffer. Investors are aware of some of this—a net 31% of those polled by Bank of America are underweight UK equities—but the nearer we got to March 2019 without a deal the more nervous they will become. 

NextEconomic optimism drives stockmarket highs

Source: economist
When the revolution eats itself

Comments are closed.