Homepage / Currency / A flattening yield curve argues against higher interest rates
Les Gambling establishments en Ligne en France 2024 200% Reward + 300 Free Rotates LevelUp Internet casino Melbourne En İyi ve Güvenilir Casino Siteleri Canlı Casino Siteleri 2023 Listesi En İyi ve Güvenilir Casino Siteleri Canlı Casino Siteleri 2023 Listesi Le meilleur casino en ligne franзais Extra Casino avec le dйpфt minimal le in addition bas Yeni Casino Siteleri ᐈ Çevrimiçi Kumarhaneler Mart 2024 Les gambling establishments en ligne proposent une grande variйtй de jeux de internet casino gratuits. Türkiye’deki Resmi Web Sitesi Google Play, Türkiye’de kumar oyunlarına izin verecek Her Gün Tatil Olsa ORDU’DA PAZARTESİ GÜNÜ FINDIK FİYATI NASIL? كازينو اون لاين الكازينوهات الممتازة على الإنترنت ألعاب الكازينو المباشرة مينا كازينو العر Google Play, Türkiye’de kumar oyunlarına izin verecek Domain Sorgulama & Domain Fýrsatlarý Canlı Casino Siteleri: 2024 Güvenilir Siteler Seçilmiştir Golden Easter Slot İncelemesi 2024, Demoyu Ücretsiz Oynayın Golden Easter Slot İncelemesi 2024, Demoyu Ücretsiz Oynayın 1xbet Türkiye Giriş Empieza Kayıt 202 Kumar Ve Kumarhaneler Hakkında Pek İlginç 21 Bilgi Kumarhane Doğru Yazımı Nedir? Tdk Ile Kumarhane Kelimesinin Doğru Yazılışı! Mobilbahiste En İyi Kumar Bonusları Ve Kazançlar Mobilbahis Giriş Sayfası On Line Casino Siteleri En Iyi Casino Siteleri 2024 Mostbet: Türkiye’de Internet Casino Mostbet Online Slotlar Ve Canlı-casin Pin Up Casino Oyna Türkiye, Pinup’un Sah Web Sites Ifade Haberleri Son Dakika Ifade Hakkında Güncel Haber Ve Bilgiler “önceliğimiz Transferin Önünü Açmak, Görüştüğümüz Yerler Var” On Line Casino Nuh’un Gemisi Deluxe Resort & Spa, Kıbrıs Bonus Veren Siteler 3 000 Den Fazla Online Oyunu Ücretsiz Oyna En Tehlikeli Kumar Oyunu Ekşi Sözlük Deneme Bonusu Veren Siteler Deneme Bonusu 2024 Explore the Magic of WildCardCity Güvenilir Bahis Siteleri En İyi Kumar Siteleri Balıkesir Triatlonuna Avrupadan Ödül Tricks of the Aviator gambling establishment game by Spribe Çevrim Içi Kumar Siteleri “bonus” Yalanıyla Kandırıyor En Güvenilir Canlı On Line Casino Siteleri Xbetting-tips Com Uncovering the Abundant Tapestry of Ozwin Gambling establishment Evaluating Board Portal Providers Uncovering the Wealthy Tapestry of Ozwin On line casino Electronic Data Area Providers Evaluation Cobra Internet casino: Raising the Australian On the internet Video gaming Practical experience 4 Things to Search for in Safeguarded Cloud Safe-keeping Fastpay On line casino Australia – Simple and No-Taxation Wagering Web page officielle franзaise de Joka Gambling establishment The Software Development Universe Game Woo Internet casino – Enjoy Slot machine games around australia Ostdeutsche Biersorten What Are Virtual Data Rooms? Vitamin D Receptor Polymorphisms Revue du Casino BlackLabel Faktory, kterй ovlivnujн hodnocenн ceskэch online kasin How to Make the Most of Your Web Development Organization and Advertising Efforts L’essor des casinos en ligne en France Boost Meeting Efficiency With Boardroom Technology Developments WildJoker Casino WildCardCity On line casino – Guaranteed Australian Gambling Portal WildCardCity Casino – The Ideal On the internet Gambling establishment within australia Modern Technologies Produce Sharing Documents Online Faster and More Protect Free Virtual Info Room pertaining to Speedy Due Diligence A Review of Data Area Software For people who do buiness Five Board Bedroom Features Which will help You Acquire a More Productive Boardroom Electronic Systems To your Business Understanding Legal Terms and Laws in Today’s World The Laws and Contracts of Hollywood: A Sunset Blvd. Tale Legal Discussion Between Johnny Cash and Antonin Scalia Legal Insights: What Teens Should Know Legal Issues and Exceptions: What You Need to Know Legal Insights and Expert Analysis Celebrity Dialogue: Legal Matters in the 21st Century Famous Personalities Discuss Legal Issues The Boys in the Boat: Legal Advisors and The Quest for Legal Knowledge Understanding Legal Matters: Q&A on Criminal Law, Joint Ventures, and More Enticing Title The Departed: Understanding Basic Work Requirements and Legal Rights Youth Slang Blog Article Legal Insights: A Journey into the World of Law The Ins and Outs of Legal Matters: Everything You Need to Know Legal Insights and Trends: A Rap Guide Mysterious Legal Matters Unveiled Insights and Information: Understanding Various Laws and Regulations Famous People of the 21st Century The Circle of Legal Life The Intersection of Fashion Law, Legal Translation, and THC Oil: A Modern Legal Guide Legal Q&A: Understanding Joinder Federal Rules and More Understanding Legal Terms and Conditions: A Comprehensive Guide Understanding Legal Documentation in a Fun Way! Understanding Legal Aspects: From Islamic Law of Inheritance to Farm Law Protests Understanding Legal Rights: A Guide to Legal Regulations and Requirements Understanding Legal Guidelines and Agreements Famous 21st Century People in Conversation Mysterious Legal Matters Unveiled Legal Matters and Real Estate: A Conversation Between Cameron Boyce and Donald Trump Understanding Legal Expertise and Why It Matters Legal FAQs and Expert Services Understanding Legal Ramifications: Common Law Ontario Health Benefits and More The Ins and Outs of Legal Requirements: From FBI Academy Physical Requirements to Silver Lake Fishing Rules The Legal Underworld: Understanding the Significance of Laws and Rights Legal Conversations: A Dialogue Between Jon Jones and Chadwick Boseman Legal Beats: Bobcats, Real Estate, Babysitting, and More

Currency

A flattening yield curve argues against higher interest rates

CENTRAL bankers may control short-term interest rates, but long-term ones are mostly free to wander. They do not always behave. When Alan Greenspan, then chairman of the Federal Reserve, was raising short rates in 2005, he described a simultaneous decline in long rates as a “conundrum”. His successor-to-be, Ben Bernanke, blamed foreign investments in American assets because of a “global saving glut”.

Janet Yellen, today’s (outgoing) Fed chair, faces a similar puzzle. Ms Yellen’s Fed has raised rates twice this year, and will probably make it three times in December. In October the Fed began to reverse quantitative easing (QE), purchases of financial assets with newly created money. Despite all this monetary tightening, yields on ten-year Treasury bonds have fallen from around 2.5% at the start of 2017 to about 2.3% today. As a result, the “yield curve” is flattening. The difference between ten-year and two-year interest rates is at its lowest since November 2007 (see chart).

  • Michael Flynn pleads guilty to lying to the FBI over Russia contacts

  • Republicans grouse about tax models they once supported

  • The 2017 Daily chart advent calendar

  • Sexual politics on stage

  • Evo Morales finds a way to run for re-election

  • Game over for virtual reality?

The yield curve matters. It has inverted—ie, long-term rates have dipped below short-term ones—just before each of the past seven American recessions. Such an inversion remains a long way off, but some rate-setters seem wary of the risk. In October, Robert Kaplan, president of the Dallas Fed, said he did not want the federal-funds rate to nudge up against the ten-year Treasury-bond yield. Likewise, Patrick Harker, his counterpart at the Philadelphia Fed, warned in November that inverting the yield curve would “not be a good thing”.

As the Fed watches the market, so traders study the Fed. The yield curve reflects where markets expect its policy to head—which they might be better able to predict than central bankers themselves. But long-term rates also include the “term premium”—the reward investors require for locking their money away, and for taking the risk that their forecasts are wrong. If inflation is unexpectedly high, long-term bondholders’ returns are reduced, and they cannot profit from the rising short-term rates that an inflation surprise typically provokes. So part of the term premium is compensation for inflation risk.

Falling inflation risk might explain today’s droopy yield curve, according to a recent note by Michael Bauer of the San Francisco Fed. Price rises have been oddly subdued this year. Despite unemployment falling to just 4.1%, inflation (excluding food and energy prices) is only 1.3% by the Fed’s preferred measure. Inflation expectations, as measured by surveys of forecasters, have not fallen. But investors may increasingly see the main risk as too little inflation, rather than too much. If so, the inflation-risk premium should have fallen, and could even turn negative.

Ms Yellen seems sympathetic to such arguments. But they are not all that comforting. The Fed’s justification for tighter monetary policy, in spite of low inflation, is the risk of a sudden surge in wages and prices. This risk should increase as unemployment falls. If bond markets are signalling that the risk is in fact declining, that seems to contradict rate-setters’ thinking.

Other than inflation risk, the term premium is a catch-all for anything that affects yields. It is poorly understood. QE, for example, is supposed to have worked by compressing the term premium. Mr Bernanke’s saving glut may have had the same effect. Both factors may still pertain. The Fed’s balance-sheet has not shrunk much yet. And in recent months, Asian countries have been accumulating large holdings of foreign-exchange reserves. American yields are low, but above those in Europe, Japan and Britain, and may be a magnet for the world’s savings. (That said, the dollar has fallen by about 6.5% this year on a trade-weighted basis.)

The likeliest explanation for a flattening yield curve, however, is the simplest: markets are losing confidence in the Fed’s ability to raise rates without inflation sagging. Given how often the markets have been right and the central bank wrong, rate-setters would be wise to tread carefully.

Source: economist
A flattening yield curve argues against higher interest rates

Comments are closed.