The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury jumped to its highest level since 2014 on Friday morning, underlining a wider move in bond markets caused by central banks moving away from financial crisis policies.
“We are not surprised by the movement because we believe that the Fed will raise rates by three or four times this year, more than what is currently priced by the market even after the recent sell-off,” David Tan, global head of rates at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, told CNBC via email.
The 10-year Treasury is considered to be a benchmark sovereign bond for the U.S economy, that helps price all sorts of loans and mortgages in the country. The yield, which moves inversely to the price, rose to 2.642 percent on Friday morning, according to Reuters data, after closing at 2.611 percent in the previous session. It has now hit a level not seen since September 2014, above peaks reached following the election of President Donald Trump.
Bond prices have been on a near 30-year run higher but have edged back in recent months with some experts predicting that the rally could now be over. Many point to a pickup inflation — which is traditionally bad for fixed income assets — and a central bank that is raising interest rates. Investors have closely monitored new data in recent weeks on the state of the U.S. economy, which is nearly at full employment.
Furthermore, some reports show that investors are also concerned over a potential shutdown of the U.S. government on Friday, if the Senate doesn’t approve a bill to keep it afloat.
“The economy is growing close to 3 percent even before the stimulus from tax reform, inflation has moved away from last year’s low levels, which was due to a number of one-off negative shocks, and we expect the upward cyclical pull on inflation from tight labor markets to increasingly outweigh structural downward pressure from factors such as technology,” Tan added.
On Thursday, yields rose after the Labor Department said that the number of people filing for unemployment benefits dropped to its lowest level in 45 years.
According to J.P. Morgan Asset Management, the 10-year Treasury yield will edge higher throughout 2018 towards, but not above 3 percent, as central banks relax their stimulus.
The bond yield that helps price all sorts of loans just jumped to its highest level since 2014