The global economic growth story that has garnered so much attention in investing circles these days will be the big driver in the commodities and bond markets, according to a five-star bond manager at DoubleLine Capital.
“You’re talking about a synchronized global growth story, which portends higher rates,” Jeffrey Sherman, the chief operating officer at Jeffrey Gundlach’s DoubleLine, told CNBC’s “Fast Money Halftime Report” in an interview.
For the first time since before the financial crisis, the U.S. and its global counterparts are showing significant economic strength.
Domestically, GDP could deliver its third consecutive quarter of above-3 percent growth when the year-end total is reported Friday. Eurozone growth even outpaced the U.S. for much of 2017 and is projected at 2.3 percent for 2018. And Japan rose 2.5 percent in the third quarter, its seventh strength quarter of growth.
While yields had remained low while the U.S. recovered from the financial crisis and the Fed kept is benchmark rate in check, Sherman said a move higher looks likely. The benchmark 10-year yield is at its highest level since July 2014, and rates have been rising across most durations of government bonds.
The Fed has indicated a desire to hike rates three times this year, an assessment to which the market has warmed in recent days.
“What you have is just an upward move across the entire Treasury curve, the five-year as well. The one part of the Treasury market that’s holding out for this long-term bond bull market is the 30-year,” he said. “It does look like rates will push higher as we continue to get more growth.”
Similarly, commodity prices are set to jump both on growth and a weak U.S. dollar, Sherman added.
Commodities had been on a nearly five-year trek lower before bottoming in January 16. The asset class has risen more than 17 percent since then, as judged by the CRB Commodity Index — a pace slower than the raging stock market but at least out of bear territory.
“We’ve seen investors start to really talk about commodities in their portfolios. From a demand perspective this global growth story is very accretive for commodities,” Sherman said.
He specifically mentioned oil as gaining from both higher demand and some production problems.
“There’s a lot of things that say commodities could have another leg upward,” he said. “Historically, commodities have been a very good late-business-cycle asset class, because you get this last push, you get a lot of leverage in the system, you get a lot of credit out there and so you get this last boom that really resonates with the commodities market. We think that commodities are one of the better investment vehicles or at least have the potential for that in 2018.”
Source: Investment Cnbc
Exec from Gundlach's firm sees global growth pushing bond yields and commodities higher