Homepage / Currency / Italy elections likely to result in ‘worst outcome’ of a hung parliament
Amazon says this Prime Day was its biggest shopping event ever Kudlow says President Trump is 'so dissatisfied' with China trade talks that he is keeping the pressure on As stocks regain their footing, an ominous warning looms Goldman Sachs downgrades Clorox to sell, says valuation is 'unsustainably high' How Satya Nadella has spurred a tripling of Microsoft's stock price in just over four years Kudlow says economic growth could top 4% for 'a quarter or two,' more tax cuts could be coming The one chart that explains Netflix’s stunning comeback US housing starts plunge 12% in June to a nine-month low Aerospace titans Boeing and Airbus top $110 billion in orders at Farnborough Target uses Prime Day to its advantage, logging its 'biggest online shopping day' so far this year Billionaire Marc Lasry sees bitcoin reaching up to $40,000 as it becomes more mainstream and easier to trade These are the 10 US airports where you're most likely to be hacked Amazon shares slightly higher as investors await Prime Day results Wreck of Russian warship found, believed to hold gold worth $130 billion A bullish ‘phenomenon’ in bond market is weeks away from fading, top credit strategist says Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: MS, GOOGL, TXN, UAL, NFLX & more Twitter shares up 50% since late April means most upside priced in, analyst says in downgrade EU fines Google $5 billion over Android antitrust abuse Mortgage applications fall 2.5% as buyers struggle to find affordable homes America may not have the tools to counter the next financial crisis, warn Bernanke, Geithner and Paulson Investors are getting spooked as the risk of a no-deal Brexit rises EU expected to fine Google $5 billion over Android antitrust abuse Ex-FBI chief James Comey urges Americans to vote for Democrats in midterm elections Elon Musk apologizes to British cave diver following baseless 'pedo guy' claim Disney, Comcast and Fox: All you need to know about one of the biggest media battles ever Xiaomi shares notch new high after Hong Kong, mainland China stock exchanges reach agreement The trade war is complicating China's efforts to fix its economy European markets set for a strong open amid earnings; Google in focus Hedge fund billionaire Einhorn places sixth in major poker tournament The biggest spender of political ads on Facebook? President Trump Asian stocks poised to gain after Fed's Powell gives upbeat comments; dollar firmer Stocks are setting up to break to new highs Not all FAANG stocks are created equal EU ruling may be too little, too late to stop Google's mobile dominance Cramer explains how Netflix's stock managed to taper its drop after disappointing on earnings Airbnb condemns New York City's 'bellhop politics,' threatens legal retaliation Amazon sellers say they were unfairly suspended right before Prime Day, and now have two bad choices Investor explains why 'duller' tech stocks can have better returns than 'high-flying' tech names Elon Musk is 'thin-skinned and short-tempered,' says tech VC Texas Instruments CEO Brian Crutcher resigns for violating code of conduct Google Cloud Platform fixes issues that took down Spotify, Snapchat and other popular sites Uber exec: We want to become the 'one stop' transportation app 'What a dumb hearing,' says Democrat as Congress grills tech companies on conservative bias Amazon shares rebound, report says Prime Day sales jumped 89 percent in first 12 hours of the event How to put your medical history on your iPhone in less than 5 minutes Investment chief: Watch these two big events in 2018 Even with Netflix slowing, the market rally is likely not over Cramer: Netflix subscriber weakness debunks the 'sky's the limit' theory on the stock Netflix is looking at watch time as a new area of growth, but the competition is stiff Why Nobel laureate Richard Thaler follows Warren Buffett's advice to avoid bitcoin Rolls-Royce is developing tiny 'cockroach' robots to crawl in and fix airplane engines After Netflix plunge, Wall Street analysts forecast just tame returns ahead for the once high-flying FANG group Roku shares rise after analyst raises streaming video company's price target due to customer growth China is investing 9 times more into Europe than into North America, report reveals Amazon says US Prime Day sales 'so far bigger than ever' as glitch is resolved Netflix is on pace for its worst day in two years US lumber producers see huge opportunity, rush to expand San Francisco to consider tax on companies to help homeless Homebuilder sentiment, still high, stalls as tariffs, labor and land drive up costs Powell backs more rate hikes as economy growing 'considerably stronger' Netflix history is filled with big stock declines – like today – followed by bigger rebounds Intel shares get downgraded by Evercore ISI due to rising competition from Nvidia, AMD Petco aims to reinvent the pet store with something you can't buy online Genetic testing is coming of age, but for consumers it's buyer beware Tech 'FAANG' was the most-crowded trade in the world heading into the Netflix implosion, survey shows Netflix weak subscriber growth may indicate a 'maturity wall' that could whack the stock even more: Analyst This chart may be predicting the bull market's demise Wall Street says Netflix's stock plunge is a ‘compelling’ buying opportunity because the streaming giant ‘never misses twice’ Tesla sinks after Musk tweets, again Boeing announces new division devoted to flying taxis Stocks making the biggest move premarket: NFLX, UNH, GS, AMZN, WMT & more Deutsche Bank downgrades Netflix, but says big subscriber miss is not 'thesis changing' IBM is experimenting with a cryptocurrency that’s pegged to the US dollar North Korea and Zimbabwe: A friendship explained Virgin Galactic spinoff Orbit to launch rockets from the UK with space deal Artificial intelligence will create more jobs than it destroys? That’s what PwC says ‘Treasonous’ Trump and ‘Putin’s poodle:' Scathing headlines follow the Trump-Putin summit China’s fintech companies offer ‘enormous’ opportunity, investment manager says Trump's performance at summit with Putin was 'unprecedented,' experts say Walmart and Microsoft link up on cloud technology as they both battle Amazon European stocks seen mixed amid earnings; Fed’s Powell to address Congress How I knew I should quit my day job and run my start-up full-time: Viral website founder China's stocks have been trounced, but the trade war may ultimately be good news for those shares Billionaire tech investor Peter Thiel bets on crypto start-up Block.one Asian shares subdued open after mixed close on Wall Street; energy stocks under pressure Amazon cloud hits snags after Amazon Prime Day downtime Netflix isn't doomed by one quarter unless people start questioning the long-term investor thesis Tech stocks set to sink on Tuesday after rough evening for ‘FANG’ Netflix plummets after missing big on subscriber growth This wristband lets humans control machines with their minds The U.S. has a rocky history convincing Russia to extradite computer criminals Amazon suffers glitches at the start of Prime Day Jeff Bezos is now the richest man in modern history 'The United States has been foolish': Read Trump and Putin's full exchange Goldman Sachs recommends these 5 highly profitable companies — including Nvidia — to combat rising inflation Goldman Sachs releases 'tactical' stock picks for this earnings season Three red flags for Netflix ahead of its earnings report The bond market may be raising recession fears, but don't expect one anytime soon Cramer: Banks are 'making fortunes' but are still as hated as they were during the financial crisis Putin told Trump at summit: Russia never meddled in US election

Currency, United States Finance

Italy elections likely to result in ‘worst outcome’ of a hung parliament

A general election in Italy in early 2018 is likely to end in a hung parliament, mimicking the political situation across much of Europe.

The exact date for the election is yet to be confirmed, although the likely date is March 4. An opinion poll by EMG Acqua from early December suggested that no one party would gain a majority of the votes, creating a “hung parliament” situation.

The center-right bloc of Forza Italia, Lega Nord and Fratelli d’Italia, led by former prime minister Silvio Berlusconi, remains the frontrunner with center-right parties seeing a combined popularity of around 35.1 percent.

The anti-establishment, euroskeptic Five Star Movement (M5S) under Luigi Di Maio is second in the polls, with 28.3 percent of the vote.

The center-left is lagging behind with various parties on that side of the political spectrum looking like they could gain a combined 30 percent of the vote, as it stands. The Democratic Party (PD) of former prime minister Matteo Renzi has seen its popularity decline to 25.3 percent, putting it in third place as a sole party.

Lorenzo Codogno, professor at the London School of Economics and founder at LC Macro Advisors, told CNBC on Thursday that the race was between “four major forces: the center-right, the center-left, the left and the Five Star Movement.”

However, he said that the most likely scenario “is a hung parliament which effectively means a grand coalition,” and that could lead to instability.

“I think the real threat for investors is a prolonged period of instability. Italy cannot afford to have no government for a prolonged period of time. If we have no government and maybe new elections, that could trigger some volatility and pressure in the market.”

For one, former prime minister Berlusconi suggested Thursday that if there was no clear winner in the election, he would support Prime Minister Paolo Gentiloni to stay on in government while another snap election was held.

Wolfango Piccoli, co-president of risk consultancy Teneo Intelligence, said in a note Thursday that the worst case scenario — a hung parliament — was the most likely event and that uncertainty surrounded the election.

“The bottom line (and our current base case) is that the worst outcome in terms of governance and stability is also the most likely one: a hung parliament,” Piccoli said.

“This would mean that in the aftermath of the vote, Italy enters again a difficult political phase characterized by recurrent noise about snap polls, poor governance and a negative reform outlook.”

During this phase, an interim government sponsored by the president would also have to secure a parliamentary majority ahead of each vote.

Piccoli said there were a number of possible scenarios during the election and that the result could be determined by around 40 percent of the electorate that is still undecided on who to vote for, and by turnout. But Berlusconi’s Forza Italia was likely to have a role in a likely coalition government, he said.

Billionaire businessman and politician Berlusconi hopes that the European Court of Justice will overturn a ban on him running for office, following a conviction for tax fraud. This would allow him to stand in the election as head of the Forza Italia party of which he is president.

“Neither the PD nor the M5S can win an outright parliamentary majority in both chambers. Neither has the necessary votes on their own, nor do they have enough allies,” Piccoli said.

“It is also certain that Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia would have to be part of any governing arrangement after the vote.”

Another possible scenario is a victory of the center-right, allowing Berlusconi and his allies to secure a thin parliamentary majority, Piccoli said. But he added that “the bar to achieve this is high” with the party needing to do well in the regional vote, especially in the south.

Source: cnbc
Italy elections likely to result in ‘worst outcome’ of a hung parliament

Comments are closed.