Catalans are going to the polls Thursday with politicians assessing not only their parties’ chances of success but how to rebuild the divided and polarized region after the vote.
The vote looks set to be roughly split between pro-independence and unionist parties, but is unlikely to settle Catalan’s independence question, according to Enea Desideri, an analyst at think tank Open Europe.
“The polls and debate and what we’re expecting in terms of the vote reflect the polarization in the political debate in the region. Other issues have been almost totally side-stepped by this question of independence and identity which has become the one issue that has defined politics in the region,” he told CNBC.
On the pro-independence side are Junts pel Catalunya (a secessionist alliance led by former President Carles Puigdemont), the Republican Left of Catalonia (or ERC, led by former Deputy President Oriol Junqueras) and the far-left Popular Unity Candidacy (CUP).
On the pro-unity side, there are major Spanish parties Ciudadanos and the Popular Party (which is the ruling party in Madrid and led by Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy) and also the Socialist Party of Catalonia (PSC).
The regional branch of Podemos, CeC-Podem, which has appeared to oscillate between the pro and anti-independence camps, could end up being a power broker after the election although it has said it would not join a coalition including Ciudadanos or the PP, its main Spanish political rivals.
Meanwhile, Ciudadanos is one of the main pro-unity parties and the one most likely to garner votes on the unionist cause; polls currently show it with around 23 percent of the vote, or around 33 seats in Catalonia’s 135 seat parliament.
Its biggest competitor is the pro-independence ERC party, also seen with around 23 percent of the vote. An absolute majority in parliament requires 68 seats and a hung parliament — where no one party gains enough votes to govern alone — is widely expected on Thursday.
Voter turnout is expected to be very high in the snap election, which was called by Spain’s government after it sacked the regional parliament in October because it declared Catalonia independent. Spain reacted by invoking Article 155 to seize control of the region.
Luis Garicano, economic advisor and executive board member of anti-independence party Ciudadanos, said he expected the voice of anti-independence voters to be heard. “The pro-independence parties have always, historically, been very mobilized for the regional elections and the voters who are not voting for pro-independence parties tend to be more mobilized for other elections,” he told CNBC Thursday.
“Hopefully we’ll enter a new period for Catalonia where things start to settle down and we can start to worry about the problems of citizens of Catalonia, like health and education.”
Pro-independence politicians have been accused by Rajoy, and other political opponents, of irresponsibility at best and sedition at worst, with high-profile secessionists Puigdemont in self-imposed exile in Belgium and Junqueras in prison.
Still, despite the accusations of treachery and potentially long prison sentences if found guilty, pro-independence sentiment is still strong. Puigdemont called on his supporters to show the same courage Thursday as they had done when voting in an unofficial referendum on independence in October, which precipitated the current political crisis in the region.
Garicano said there was a risk that pro-independence parties were “not willing to accept the rules of the game” and the election result, however.
“We know there is very wide uncertainty on a very contested election and it’s going to come down to the wire, that is certainly true,” he said, adding that there was a risk that uncertainty continues and “pro-independence parties don’t accept the rules of the game.”
Politicians recognize that Catalan society is deeply divided by the question of independence and that the issue is not easy to resolve in a way that can placate both camps. Some kind of constitutional reform could be a starting point for dialogue between Spain and Catalonia, however, with discussions potentially focusing on public investment in the region and an overhaul of its financial system.
Fernando Sanchez Costa, the Catalan parliament deputy of Rajoy’s Partido Popular, told CNBC that there was “no easy answer” to the Catalonia question, but that the winner had to be “inclusive.”
“After a problem that has been a very complex problem there is no easy answer and there will be no easy answer,” he said, although he saw the election as a “historic chance for change.”
“It’s very important that whoever wins has to be inclusive — that they know that half of the population is scared that the other half has won. And we have to be prudent, rational and very empathic with other people to start again and to rebuild Catalonia with consent and dialogue,” he said.
Source: cnbc
Catalans go to the polls, but vote unlikely to heal deep divisions