Here’s a breakdown of the biggest numbers in Friday’s nonfarm payroll report for April:
The good: The unemployment rate fell to 3.9 percent during the month, the lowest level since December 2000. Black unemployment dropped to 6.6 percent, its lowest level ever.
The bad: There were two points that gathered a lot of attention — first, that the total job creation of 164,000 was considerably below the 192,000 that economists surveyed by Reuters had expected. Also, wage growth was just 2.6 percent on a year-over-year basis, below market expectations of 2.7 percent.
The ugly: America’s shrinking labor pool continues to be a problem. Another 410,000 folks dropped out of the workforce, bringing the total to 95.74 million. That’s a big reason for the dropping headline unemployment rate.
More numbers: Professional and business services led job creation with 54,000, while manufacturing and health care contributed 24,000 each. Mining increased by 8,000, and has risen 86,000 since October 2016 as President Donald Trump has pledged to give the sector new life.
Washington vs. Wall Street: There will be a dichotomy of reactions to this report. The White House will focus on the 3.9 percent jobless rate; investors will be more tuned into the low wage pressures. The market expects the Fed to hike interest rates two more times this year, and this report is unlikely to change minds.
Breaking it down: AllianceBernstein senior economist Eric Winograd says: “The market impact of today’s number should be limited, but more positive than negative in my view. The softness in wages will likely ease concern about accelerating inflationary pressures, but the solid pace of hiring provides ample fuel for consumption. The economy still looks good and today’s data won’t push the Fed to be more aggressive about tightening.”
Source: Investment Cnbc
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