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Investment

Cramer's 6 concerns that could hurt even a strong bull market

On a relatively tame day in the stock market that can be easily dismissed, Jim Cramer wanted to give his reasons for why investors should never lose sight of their underlying concerns.

So the “Mad Money” host shared his list of six concerns that, if realized, could have sway over the market’s movements in major, potentially catastrophic ways.

“I give you this list not because I’m a bear, and not because the market is down hard today, the first time in four sessions. It’s more because I want you to know that I have a list and I check it constantly. I always add new things to it, because that’s what you do if you’re a pro,” Cramer said.

Regardless of how the issue of this rogue nation is eventually solved, Cramer cannot think of a solution that would be good for the market.

“It’s kind of an existential issue, because an erratic dictator with an ICBM, he can do a lot of damage before he goes down. But it’s hard to see how we can just keep placating North Korea given this development,” he said.

South Korean markets are strong, an odd response to its northern neighbor’s radical missile tests, the “Mad Money” host added.

“In my mind, there’s two ways to look at this issue: go long Apple and short the South-Korea-based Samsung if you are narrow and linear and focused just on the stock market, God love you. Or be prepared for the un-preparable,” Cramer said. “I’m just glad Dear Leader has such a small nuclear arsenal, but that’s a pretty low bar.”

An onslaught of competition in various industries makes it more difficult for investors to pay premiums on the stocks of companies that are doing well, Cramer said.

For example, Costco’s Wednesday earnings report was better than expected, with rising same-store sales, but its stock declined throughout the day on Thursday.

“But it doesn’t matter, because even though the sales are terrific, the shares of Costco trade at nearly 25 times earnings and that’s too high a price-to-earnings multiple versus what Amazon can potentially do to it down the road when it’s bought Whole Foods,” Cramer said.

A day that lives in retail infamy, Amazon Prime Day is the third on Cramer’s list due to the simple fact that it gives the e-commerce giant yet another opportunity to flex its muscles.

“After that day we’re going to hear that sales were probably up 20 percent versus last year’s Amazon Prime, so the day we get the results, every other retailer out there is going to take a header. We’ve got to get past that day,” he said.

Cramer’s fourth worry is that some massive, income-yielding stocks like Verizon and General Electric may start to break down given their recent stints at 52-week lows.

“It just doesn’t feel all that safe out there,” Cramer said, adding that it is “worrisome … because these companies need to do something to right their ships, yet they don’t even think their ships need righting. That’s a problem.”

Congress has just 60 working days left until the end of the year, and Cramer is worried about an array of issues not being addressed including the federal budget, the debt ceiling, and the Republican Senate health care bill.

“If that [bill] fails — and it probably will, which I’ve been telling you from the beginning — then we’re going to have to accept that this market likely won’t be getting much assistance from the Trump administration,” Cramer said. “In fact, the only thing coming from Washington is rate hikes from the Fed and potential bond sales, which is only good news for you if you’re a bank CEO. Bad for everyone else.”

The market seems to have lost interest in mergers and acquisitions given the tepid responses to Vantiv buying WorldPay and QVC buying Home Shopping Network.

“The fact is, without more deals, this market lacks a natural defense against the bears. There is no penalty whatsoever to being short right now, even being short Tesla, the ultimate bear slayer, and that’s worrisome,” the “Mad Money” host said.

All in all, while these are not arguments for the bears to preemptively wreak havoc, they are things to keep on your watchlist, especially given the unpredictability of each of these concerns, Cramer said.

“Maybe that’s the real bottom line, though: if the list of worries is always there, you’re always prepared. Remember, preparation for the worst is always part of the game. It just isn’t and can’t be the only part, despite what the Twitter-ati might try to tell me,” the “Mad Money” host concluded.

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Source: Investment Cnbc
Cramer's 6 concerns that could hurt even a strong bull market

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