Homepage / Investment / Op-Ed: The market’s up 20% since the election. Here's why it's time to lock in some profits
Как Стать Стримером Казино%3F Что для Этого Нужно%3 Best Game Software How to Design Engaging and Effective Educational Events Winline Делает Разницу! Букмекерская Контора Winline Онлайн Ставки На Спорт Making Corporate Travel Arrangements Business Virtual Data Room Stock Market Tips For Beginners What to Look for in a VDR Provider Why You Need a Secure Data Room Learning in the Digital Age How to Apply For Business Loans VDR and Document Management Performance Management and HR Outsourcing Modern Business Integration How to Choose the Right Board Portal Software for Your Company How to Choose a Data Storage Room Why Startups Use a Data Room for Investors The Best Web Tools for Designers Use Cases For Using VDR Documents Subsidy Programs and Financing Innovative Technologies for Audit What Is Real Estate Management? Investment and Funds Inspiring Teaching Books What Are the Benefits of a Virtual Data Room? Startups and Business Ideas How to Improve Virtual Board Communication The Lego Company History Investing in the Biotech Industry Financial Startup Basics Jogue Por Dinheiro Actual Em Cassino Onlin Virtual Communication Methods for Remote Leaders How to Choose the Best VDR Providers How Successful Online Businesses Succeed How Business Experts Fuel Innovation and Create Competitive Edge The IT World and Business Deal Making Software and How it Can Help Your Business Virtual Data Room Software Types of Steel Materials and Their Uses Board of Directors Software Bonver Casino Cz Hrací Automaty S Bonusem Zdarm Magazyn Żużel Speedway W Polsce I Na Świeci What Is Logistics School? What Is the VDR for Acquisition? The Best Data Room Apps For Startups Best Practices for Creating an Effective Board Meeting Agenda How to Choose the Best Shareholders Online Platforms Ostdeutsche Biersorten Getting a Construction Management Degree How to Select an Online Data Room Provider Start Your Blog Without Investment What to Look for in a Board Room Provider Data Room Comparison – Which Data Room Is Right For Your Business? Zakłady Sportowe Online Autógrafo Bukmacherska 1xbe “Pin-up O Melhor Cassino Do Brasil Web Site Oficial ᐈ Jogar Caça-níquei Rotating Events in Our Time How to Choose the Best Business Software Choosing an Online Payment Processor Due Diligence Software Virtual Data Room Providers for M&A Due Diligence The Best Online Data Room Benefits of a Due Diligence Data Room Best Practices for Data Rooms Types of Corporate Governance What Is Virtual Data Storage? Benefits of Document Distribution Software The Benefits of a Data Room for Startups Effective Project Management Requires a Mix of Technical and People Skills Top 5 Free File Sharing Services Zakłady Sportowe Online Obstawiaj U Bukmachera Gg Be Speed Up Your Business Valuation With a Data Room How to Choose the Best Board Management Software for Business How to Write Effective Board Decision Papers Choosing Board Meeting Software The Benefits of Document Distribution Software Why Startups Need a VDR for Start-Up Virtual Data Room for Ipos and the IPO Process What is a Board Portal? What Industries Use Virtual Data Room? Advantages of a Data Room What Does a Board Room Provider Do? Data Room Analysis for Venture Capital Funding The Importance of Board Reporting Software Safe Uploading and Downloading Business Files How to Select the Best Board Management Software How to Organize the Work of a Company “gerçek Parayla En Iyi Slot Makineleri Ve Spor Bahisler Which is the Best Podcast For Stock Market Beginners? Virtual Data Room Facts How to Protect Confidential Documents for Boards Advantages of Online Meetings Business Issues to Consider When Choosing a Data Room Provider What Is a Data Room? Virtual Board Room Software Due Diligence Risk Factors How to Choose a Reliable Tool for Data Exchange test Users535352253 Board Software and VDR Programs Business Operations Management Software


Op-Ed: The market’s up 20% since the election. Here's why it's time to lock in some profits

Back in the fall of 2015 I was asked to do a segment on CNBC’s Closing Bell. I had been on the show countless times over the years and found myself fighting bearish sentiment as the market climbed higher and higher. I remember getting into ‘loud conversations’ with my good friend Rick Santelli about the bond market giving investors the wrong signal for stocks thus keeping investors out of equities. But this day was different; It was the first time in years I became openly concerned and called for caution.

There were certain variables coming into play which were creating, in my mind, the perfect storm. Not only had the market been fighting the anti-business sentiment coming out of DC but it had to deal with high valuations, an expanding multiple and a strong, unhealthy correlation to crude oil. As crude started to become a larger problem for the market, it became clear that the capital markets were going to experience serious volatility. Eventually, we witnessed equities lose almost 20 percent in a couple months.

It was the Trump election that transformed me back to the ‘Optimistic Armenian’ (As the late Mark Haines called me!) once again. A week later I was asked to do Closing Bell yet again and called for the ‘all clear’ for the stock market. The sweep in DC changed everything overnight and the market was poised to move significantly higher, and it did. We were all waiting for the return of Ronald Reagan and supply side to save the economy! But now we find ourselves at an inflection point. The question we should now be asking is; What if DC is the problem, not the solution?

As I write this piece, congress has 60 days left this year to legislate. That means they have 60 days to carve out a tax reform bill, work out a deal for repatriation of capital and reform health care. Assuming health care gets pushed out another year, that still leaves two huge pieces of legislation left with very little time.

Understand, the forward earnings for the S&P have factored roughly $15-$20 per share for repatriation and tax reform. If neither happens, it will leave the equity market way over what the street would consider ‘fair value’ or a sustainable multiple. It would leave corporate America in a holding period for capital expenditure increases. Listen to Randall Stephenson, AT&T CEO, who said AT&T would spend over $22 billion if there were meaningful tax reform.

Bottom line: If we don’t get the tax reform and repatriation, which are desperately needed, stocks could be in big trouble for the remainder of the year.

There’s an old saying from the floor of the exchange: “You can never go broke taking a profit.’ Being a trader, it’s one of the first lessens to learn. With a market that has moved about 20 percent higher since election night, the time has come to take some money off the table and say ‘thanks’ for the year.

Think of it this way, a 20 percent return on a portfolio is a great year and it happened in six months.

That’s not to say that the market is no good. On the contrary, this could be the start of the biggest bull market we have seen in 30 years. The problem is that we have had too much, too soon. If our lawmakers don’t step it up and start to pass some real pro-growth legislation then the market could be poised to pull back, erasing that 20 percent gain.

There are many factors which drive my caution now, like central bank tightening, geopolitics and disinflationary pressure for starters. Yes, I’m worried about North Korea and the lower prices of crude, but what bulls should worry about most is the lack of action this year out of DC. There’s so much that needs to be done and time is running out.

Some, including Larry Kudlow, have called for Congress to stay in session rather than taking an August recess to work through the legislation. I couldn’t agree more. If the Republican leadership doesn’t deliver on a deal this year, we could witness the emergence of the ‘stock market vigilantes.’

The longer we have a lack of legislative print around taxes and repatriation, the more concerned we should be. It seems that the necessary ideas to free up seed capital, repatriate offshore assets and reform a broken tax system might be delayed. If so, the time has come to monetize some of this year’s huge gains or hedge out equity exposure.

2017 has this congress for another 60 days and counting. Without real pro-growth reform, the next 60 congressional work days will start sounding like the clicking of a roller coaster going up the hill. It could be a rough ride down, so make sure you’re buckled up!

Commentary by Jack Bouroudjian, CEO of Index Futures Group LLC, a registered independent broker, and CIO of Index Capital Partners, a registered commodity-pool operator. He was also a three-term director of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and founder and advisor of UCX (Universal Compute Exchange). Follow him on Twitter @JackBouroudjian.

For the latest commentary on markets in the U.S. and around the world, follow @CNBCopinion on Twitter.

Source: Investment Cnbc
Op-Ed: The market’s up 20% since the election. Here's why it's time to lock in some profits

Comments are closed.