Homepage / Investment / Op-Ed: The market’s up 20% since the election. Here's why it's time to lock in some profits
Les Gambling establishments en Ligne en France 2024 200% Reward + 300 Free Rotates LevelUp Internet casino Melbourne En İyi ve Güvenilir Casino Siteleri Canlı Casino Siteleri 2023 Listesi En İyi ve Güvenilir Casino Siteleri Canlı Casino Siteleri 2023 Listesi Le meilleur casino en ligne franзais Extra Casino avec le dйpфt minimal le in addition bas Yeni Casino Siteleri ᐈ Çevrimiçi Kumarhaneler Mart 2024 Les gambling establishments en ligne proposent une grande variйtй de jeux de internet casino gratuits. Türkiye’deki Resmi Web Sitesi Google Play, Türkiye’de kumar oyunlarına izin verecek Her Gün Tatil Olsa ORDU’DA PAZARTESİ GÜNÜ FINDIK FİYATI NASIL? كازينو اون لاين الكازينوهات الممتازة على الإنترنت ألعاب الكازينو المباشرة مينا كازينو العر Google Play, Türkiye’de kumar oyunlarına izin verecek Domain Sorgulama & Domain Fýrsatlarý Canlı Casino Siteleri: 2024 Güvenilir Siteler Seçilmiştir Golden Easter Slot İncelemesi 2024, Demoyu Ücretsiz Oynayın Golden Easter Slot İncelemesi 2024, Demoyu Ücretsiz Oynayın 1xbet Türkiye Giriş Empieza Kayıt 202 Kumar Ve Kumarhaneler Hakkında Pek İlginç 21 Bilgi Kumarhane Doğru Yazımı Nedir? Tdk Ile Kumarhane Kelimesinin Doğru Yazılışı! Mobilbahiste En İyi Kumar Bonusları Ve Kazançlar Mobilbahis Giriş Sayfası On Line Casino Siteleri En Iyi Casino Siteleri 2024 Mostbet: Türkiye’de Internet Casino Mostbet Online Slotlar Ve Canlı-casin Pin Up Casino Oyna Türkiye, Pinup’un Sah Web Sites Ifade Haberleri Son Dakika Ifade Hakkında Güncel Haber Ve Bilgiler “önceliğimiz Transferin Önünü Açmak, Görüştüğümüz Yerler Var” On Line Casino Nuh’un Gemisi Deluxe Resort & Spa, Kıbrıs Bonus Veren Siteler 3 000 Den Fazla Online Oyunu Ücretsiz Oyna En Tehlikeli Kumar Oyunu Ekşi Sözlük Deneme Bonusu Veren Siteler Deneme Bonusu 2024 Explore the Magic of WildCardCity Güvenilir Bahis Siteleri En İyi Kumar Siteleri Balıkesir Triatlonuna Avrupadan Ödül Tricks of the Aviator gambling establishment game by Spribe Çevrim Içi Kumar Siteleri “bonus” Yalanıyla Kandırıyor En Güvenilir Canlı On Line Casino Siteleri Xbetting-tips Com Uncovering the Abundant Tapestry of Ozwin Gambling establishment Evaluating Board Portal Providers Uncovering the Wealthy Tapestry of Ozwin On line casino Electronic Data Area Providers Evaluation Cobra Internet casino: Raising the Australian On the internet Video gaming Practical experience 4 Things to Search for in Safeguarded Cloud Safe-keeping Fastpay On line casino Australia – Simple and No-Taxation Wagering Web page officielle franзaise de Joka Gambling establishment The Software Development Universe Game Woo Internet casino – Enjoy Slot machine games around australia Ostdeutsche Biersorten What Are Virtual Data Rooms? Vitamin D Receptor Polymorphisms Revue du Casino BlackLabel Faktory, kterй ovlivnujн hodnocenн ceskэch online kasin How to Make the Most of Your Web Development Organization and Advertising Efforts L’essor des casinos en ligne en France Boost Meeting Efficiency With Boardroom Technology Developments WildJoker Casino WildCardCity On line casino – Guaranteed Australian Gambling Portal WildCardCity Casino – The Ideal On the internet Gambling establishment within australia Modern Technologies Produce Sharing Documents Online Faster and More Protect Free Virtual Info Room pertaining to Speedy Due Diligence A Review of Data Area Software For people who do buiness Five Board Bedroom Features Which will help You Acquire a More Productive Boardroom Electronic Systems To your Business Understanding Legal Terms and Laws in Today’s World The Laws and Contracts of Hollywood: A Sunset Blvd. Tale Legal Discussion Between Johnny Cash and Antonin Scalia Legal Insights: What Teens Should Know Legal Issues and Exceptions: What You Need to Know Legal Insights and Expert Analysis Celebrity Dialogue: Legal Matters in the 21st Century Famous Personalities Discuss Legal Issues The Boys in the Boat: Legal Advisors and The Quest for Legal Knowledge Understanding Legal Matters: Q&A on Criminal Law, Joint Ventures, and More Enticing Title The Departed: Understanding Basic Work Requirements and Legal Rights Youth Slang Blog Article Legal Insights: A Journey into the World of Law The Ins and Outs of Legal Matters: Everything You Need to Know Legal Insights and Trends: A Rap Guide Mysterious Legal Matters Unveiled Insights and Information: Understanding Various Laws and Regulations Famous People of the 21st Century The Circle of Legal Life The Intersection of Fashion Law, Legal Translation, and THC Oil: A Modern Legal Guide Legal Q&A: Understanding Joinder Federal Rules and More Understanding Legal Terms and Conditions: A Comprehensive Guide Understanding Legal Documentation in a Fun Way! Understanding Legal Aspects: From Islamic Law of Inheritance to Farm Law Protests Understanding Legal Rights: A Guide to Legal Regulations and Requirements Understanding Legal Guidelines and Agreements Famous 21st Century People in Conversation Mysterious Legal Matters Unveiled Legal Matters and Real Estate: A Conversation Between Cameron Boyce and Donald Trump Understanding Legal Expertise and Why It Matters Legal FAQs and Expert Services Understanding Legal Ramifications: Common Law Ontario Health Benefits and More The Ins and Outs of Legal Requirements: From FBI Academy Physical Requirements to Silver Lake Fishing Rules The Legal Underworld: Understanding the Significance of Laws and Rights Legal Conversations: A Dialogue Between Jon Jones and Chadwick Boseman Legal Beats: Bobcats, Real Estate, Babysitting, and More

Investment

Op-Ed: The market’s up 20% since the election. Here's why it's time to lock in some profits

Back in the fall of 2015 I was asked to do a segment on CNBC’s Closing Bell. I had been on the show countless times over the years and found myself fighting bearish sentiment as the market climbed higher and higher. I remember getting into ‘loud conversations’ with my good friend Rick Santelli about the bond market giving investors the wrong signal for stocks thus keeping investors out of equities. But this day was different; It was the first time in years I became openly concerned and called for caution.

There were certain variables coming into play which were creating, in my mind, the perfect storm. Not only had the market been fighting the anti-business sentiment coming out of DC but it had to deal with high valuations, an expanding multiple and a strong, unhealthy correlation to crude oil. As crude started to become a larger problem for the market, it became clear that the capital markets were going to experience serious volatility. Eventually, we witnessed equities lose almost 20 percent in a couple months.

It was the Trump election that transformed me back to the ‘Optimistic Armenian’ (As the late Mark Haines called me!) once again. A week later I was asked to do Closing Bell yet again and called for the ‘all clear’ for the stock market. The sweep in DC changed everything overnight and the market was poised to move significantly higher, and it did. We were all waiting for the return of Ronald Reagan and supply side to save the economy! But now we find ourselves at an inflection point. The question we should now be asking is; What if DC is the problem, not the solution?

As I write this piece, congress has 60 days left this year to legislate. That means they have 60 days to carve out a tax reform bill, work out a deal for repatriation of capital and reform health care. Assuming health care gets pushed out another year, that still leaves two huge pieces of legislation left with very little time.

Understand, the forward earnings for the S&P have factored roughly $15-$20 per share for repatriation and tax reform. If neither happens, it will leave the equity market way over what the street would consider ‘fair value’ or a sustainable multiple. It would leave corporate America in a holding period for capital expenditure increases. Listen to Randall Stephenson, AT&T CEO, who said AT&T would spend over $22 billion if there were meaningful tax reform.

Bottom line: If we don’t get the tax reform and repatriation, which are desperately needed, stocks could be in big trouble for the remainder of the year.

There’s an old saying from the floor of the exchange: “You can never go broke taking a profit.’ Being a trader, it’s one of the first lessens to learn. With a market that has moved about 20 percent higher since election night, the time has come to take some money off the table and say ‘thanks’ for the year.

Think of it this way, a 20 percent return on a portfolio is a great year and it happened in six months.

That’s not to say that the market is no good. On the contrary, this could be the start of the biggest bull market we have seen in 30 years. The problem is that we have had too much, too soon. If our lawmakers don’t step it up and start to pass some real pro-growth legislation then the market could be poised to pull back, erasing that 20 percent gain.

There are many factors which drive my caution now, like central bank tightening, geopolitics and disinflationary pressure for starters. Yes, I’m worried about North Korea and the lower prices of crude, but what bulls should worry about most is the lack of action this year out of DC. There’s so much that needs to be done and time is running out.

Some, including Larry Kudlow, have called for Congress to stay in session rather than taking an August recess to work through the legislation. I couldn’t agree more. If the Republican leadership doesn’t deliver on a deal this year, we could witness the emergence of the ‘stock market vigilantes.’

The longer we have a lack of legislative print around taxes and repatriation, the more concerned we should be. It seems that the necessary ideas to free up seed capital, repatriate offshore assets and reform a broken tax system might be delayed. If so, the time has come to monetize some of this year’s huge gains or hedge out equity exposure.

2017 has this congress for another 60 days and counting. Without real pro-growth reform, the next 60 congressional work days will start sounding like the clicking of a roller coaster going up the hill. It could be a rough ride down, so make sure you’re buckled up!

Commentary by Jack Bouroudjian, CEO of Index Futures Group LLC, a registered independent broker, and CIO of Index Capital Partners, a registered commodity-pool operator. He was also a three-term director of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and founder and advisor of UCX (Universal Compute Exchange). Follow him on Twitter @JackBouroudjian.

For the latest commentary on markets in the U.S. and around the world, follow @CNBCopinion on Twitter.

Source: Investment Cnbc
Op-Ed: The market’s up 20% since the election. Here's why it's time to lock in some profits

Comments are closed.