Homepage / Investment / The dollar may be ready to rebound from its Trump losses now that rates are finally rising
Menyelami Dunia Slot Thailand: Keseruan dan Peluang Kemenangan Besar Menyelami Dunia Slot Thailand: Pengalaman Bermain yang Tak Terlupakan เว็บพนัน ออนไลน์ จับกลางกรุง! บุกทลายฐานเว็บพนันชาวไต้หวันรายใหญ่ เงินหมุนเวียน 500 ล้าน ปี Panduan Lengkap Bermain Slot Online: Strategi & Tips Terbaik Deneme Bonusu ile Ücretsiz Oyun Oynayın Boy Names: Top 1,000 Baby Boy Names in the U S. for 2024 List of most popular given names Wikipedia Mobile Gaming in the UK: Trends, Regulations, and Future Leads Start dating hot moms today – it’s easier than you think Define generative ai 14 Define generative ai 14 How to find the right online gay dating website for you Home Superclones watches Exploring Super Clone Watches: Quality, Accuracy, and Affordability Join the most effective bbw milf dating site today En İyi Bahis Siteleri İçin Seçim Yaparken Nelere Dikkat Edilmeli? At this point, and yet very near | Life and magnificence | Trusted Casino Hellspin Review Leading Online Casino Hellspin Evaluation Mostbet App: Download Mostbet apk for Android & iOS 2024 Ігрові Автомати з Виводом Грошей на Карту ️ Онлайн Ігри на Гривні в Українікращі азартні ігри на гроші з виводом на карту2024-01-08 Taya365 online casino login Tips for conference and dating other bisexual men How to get the right bi partner Exploring the Prospering World of Online Casinos in the UK Meet hot singles and luxuriate in flirty chatting Bahis Siteleri: En İyi Bonuslar ve Promosyonlar Situs Slot Hari Ini Terbaik dan Terpercaya Tahun Ini, Gampang Menang Güvenilir Bonus Veren Siteler ve Detaylı İncelemeler Güncel Giriş, Güvenilir Adres VOX Casino: VOXCasino Promo Code 2025 Get to learn other old gay men inside area Slot Min Depo 10K Terbaik dan Paling Direkomendasi Tahun Ini: Gampang Menang! Scatter Hitam Terbaik dan Paling Direkomendasi Tahun Ini: Gampang Menang! Top 10 Online Casinos in Deutschland Januar 2025 Get ready to unleash your wildest fantasies Ücretsiz Oyun Deneyimi: Deneme Bonuslarıyla Risk Almadan Kazan Bonuslarla Bahis Keyfini Katlamanın Yöntemleri 2025’te Bahis Oynayarak Kazanç Sağlamanın Yolları Freespin Veren Casino Siteleri ile Daha Fazla Eğlenin Casino Sitelerinde En İyi Bonuslar Nerede? The Ultimate Guide to Free Spins BC.Game Mirror – Discover All Current Mirrors Find regional women seeking intimate encounters Elitecasino’a Katýlým saðlayarak, Hýzla 800 TL Bonus Ýmkaný Kazanýn! Baccarat Tips: Exactly How to Enhance Your Game and Boost Your Chances of Winning Find your perfect gay sex dating site Exploring 7slots in Turkey: A Comprehensive Overview Şartsız Deneme Bonusu Veren Sitelerin Listesi The Power of Tarot Online Free Finest Gambling Enterprises that Approve Bitcoin: The Future of Online Betting MostBet: Kumarhane Eðlencesiyle Dolu Eðlencenin Tadýný Çýkarmak MostBet: Kumarhane Oyunlarýyla Zengin Yeni Nesil Eðlence Deneyimi Understanding Clairvoyant Readings: A Comprehensive Overview Online Online Casinos That Accept PayPal: A Convenient and Secure Payment Choice Сайт казино Pin Up Tips for conference and connecting with seniors whom are interested in dating Spin Casino Review 2025 » Free Spins & Bonus Codes Trusted Casino Games For All Players Best Gay Hookup Websites | FreeHookupsSites The Ultimate Guide to Psychic Analysis Enjoy exciting and safe online dating experiences Relax Your Mind: the way to get the Inside Voices through your Head Find love regarding most readily useful mature dating site usa The Power of Clairvoyant Analyses Uncover the Advantages of Playing at Masalbet Casino Virtual Casino Fairgo Review Wireclub: Program For Internet Dating | Assessment 2023 Discover the many benefits of dating a korean girl and luxuriate in enduring love How discover a couple for woman that fits your needs anabolizantes legales 33 SpinBetter Freispiele⁚ Ein detaillierter Überblick (Stand⁚ 26.01.2025) Стиль и Защита: Чехлы на Телефон и Планшет от Womux com NikaDate.com 2025: Trick Insights Before You Sign up with Elderly Sizzle: Come Across Great Hookups Over 40? | 1win APP: Descargar, Juegos, Casino, APK Chile cl 1win Punjab FC create history with historic 2-1 win against Everton FC SofiaDate Evaluation 2025: Is This Website Worth The Buzz And Cash? bets10’in Kazançlý Slot Oyunlarý Nv Casino: Przewodnik po Świecie Gier Hazardowych Casino Wazamba Online Summary Discover the best local hookup internet sites for meeting wives Leading Gay Dating Apps: My Personal Collection test Télécharger 1win Sénégal apk 1win Sénégal inscription anabolizantes comprar online 9 popochka Hesap Açma Promosyonu Veren Siteler Xslot Kumar ve Güven Merkezi Get the absolute most out of your ebony bbw site source ¿Newest Home loan Re-finance Prices Leading Online Casino Rocketplay Evaluation Find the right partner on nymphomaniac dating website what exactly are local sex websites and exactly how can they assist you to? casino 643 Online Casino 7slots Grandpashabet 2217 Güncel Giriş Adresi Grandpashabet2217 com 5804 grandpashabet güncel Trezor Suite Official Desktop && Web Crypto Ledger Live App: Buy, Sell, Stake and Swap Crypto Hardware Wallet & Crypto Wallet Security for Crypto Shared: The 7 Things Men Want from Females

Investment

The dollar may be ready to rebound from its Trump losses now that rates are finally rising

The U.S. dollar looks ready to turn from loser to leader.

Strategists say the beaten-up dollar could be in the process of making a turn higher, thanks to Federal Reserve policy. The currency was at a four-month high against the yen Tuesday and was rising against a basket of currencies.

The dollar index was up slightly at 96.08 on Tuesday morning, but it was down nearly 6 percent for the year so far, after surging 7 percent in the fourth quarter of 2016 on expectations that President Donald Trump‘s policies could boost the economy.

The dollar has taken a bruising this year as the elation faded that Trump’s presidency would quickly bring about fiscal stimulus and tax reform. The dollar is down 8 percent against the euro this year and 13 percent against the Mexican peso.

Analysts say the dollar is now looking elsewhere in Washington for support, and it should follow Treasury yields higher with Fed policies as a driver. The Treasury market began its move two weeks ago, as central bankers around the world all sounded suddenly more hawkish. The Fed, gearing up to reduce its balance sheet and raise rates, sounded the most hawkish of all.

“I think we’re in a turning pattern, and we went from excessively overweight dollar positions at the end of the year to probably underweight positions,” said Robert Sinche, chief global strategist at Amherst Pierpont.

“I think we’re going to start squaring them up and move back to a dollar-positive environment,” he said. “We’re looking for a 3 to 4 percent rebound in the dollar overall, maybe a little more versus the euro and a little less versus the yen. I could see euro-dollar toward $1.04 and the pound down toward $1.20.”

Treasury yields have been edging higher since late June. The 10-year yield, for instance, rose from 2.12 percent on June 26 to 2.38 percent Tuesday.

European Central Bank President Mario Draghi was one of those who sounded more hawkish, reminding markets extraordinary easing policies won’t be around forever.

“When push comes to shove, the ECB is still talking about changing its words,” said Marc Chandler, chief currency strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman. “The Federal Reserve is talking about shrinking its balance sheet. Draghi said they’re not going to raise rates until they’re done with QE [quantitative easing].

“I’m not sure it’s a concerted effort, but with rates so low the officials are letting some steam out of the system,” Chandler said.

Markets have been doubting the Fed would go through with a third rate hike this year, but Fed officials reinforced their forecast in recent comments and in the minutes of the last meeting, released last week. San Francisco Fed President John Williams repeated his view again Tuesday, sending Treasury yields higher in early morning trading.

The dollar is also firming ahead of Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s testimony before Congress Wednesday and Thursday. She is expected to deliver the same message.

“I think we’ve unwound a lot of the Trump policy mix … but the reason we were bullish on the dollar last year before the election is the same reason we should be bullish now. It’s not about fiscal policy, it’s about monetary policy,” Chandler said.

The dollar index was up a half percent so far for the month of July. Chandler said he expects the dollar index to get to just above 100 by year-end. In 2015, it was as high as 140, and at the end of last year, it was at 103.75.

“Most people thought the dollar would strengthen [this year],” said Chandler. “A lot of people thought there would be a pullback on the overreaction to the Trump election, but the dollar has gone lower and stayed down longer than people thought. We started the year with very long dollar positions.”

Chandler said the recent economic data, like the jobs report, is showing signs of improvement, but housing and auto sales are flashing warnings.

“Other things look like they’re doing well. American shoppers have the wherewithal. Income is going up faster than consumption. I think we’ll see the U.S. economy strengthen in the second half of the year. That should boost people’s confidence in what the Fed is doing,” said Chandler.

Chandler said he agrees with the Fed’s assessment that the drop in inflation is transitory.

Retail sales and the Consumer Price Index inflation are expected Friday, and both are being monitored for what they could mean to the Fed.

“CPI has fallen for four months in a row, and it could stabilize. It could even tick higher,” said Chandler.

The strategists said their forecasts could change if there is some other unforeseen catalyst, but Trump could also be a factor. He would be a negative for the greenback if he takes a protectionist stand on trade. He is threatening steel and aluminum tariffs.

“He’s talked the dollar down,” said Sinche. “If you look at the relations to yield spreads the dollar should be about four percent higher than it is now.”

There could also be an adverse reaction if Congress does not move on the budget or debt ceiling this fall.

Source: Investment Cnbc
The dollar may be ready to rebound from its Trump losses now that rates are finally rising

Comments are closed.