The U.S. economy is heating up as the year progresses, with the second quarter pointing towards some of the gaudy growth that President Donald Trump predicted when he was running for president.
In its most recent forecast, the Atlanta Fed said the three-month period is tracking at a 4.6 percent gain, exactly double the 2017 rate as well as the 2018 first-quarter number. If accurate, the growth rate would easily outdistance the 3.1 percent gain for 2017 in the same three-month period.
While running for office, Trump promised his policies would push the economy towards growth he estimated as high as 6 percent.
The Atlanta district raised its forecast following a report Friday morning indicating a stronger than expected inventory build that raised the forecast one-tenth of a point.
Other trackers indicate stronger growth as well, though the central bank’s tracker is the most optimistic.
CNBC’s reliable Rapid Update, which looks at readings from top economists, sees the second quarter coming in at a healthy 3.7 percent. The New York Fed’s Nowcast is tracking a more muted 3.1 percent gain.
The buoyancy comes amid an economy operating close to full employment, with an unemployment rate 3.8 percent, inflation still hovering at or below 2 percent and business and consumer confidence strong.
The Federal Reserve is watching growth closely, and is likely to increase interest rates next week at its two-day policy meeting.
Earlier this week, the U.S. economy got an important vote of confidence from both legendary investor Warren Buffett and JP Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon.
“Right now, there’s no question: It’s feeling strong. I mean, if we’re in the sixth inning, we have our sluggers coming to bat right now,” Buffett told CNBC, adding that “right now, business is good. There’s no question about it.”
“The way I look at it, there is nothing that is a real pothole,” Dimon added. “If you look at how the table’s set, consumers are in very good shape.”
Source: cnbc economy
Economic growth for second quarter is on track to double 2017's full-year pace