Homepage / Currency / Why the falling oil price isn’t hurting markets
Best Alternatives of VPN Software New Step by Step Roadmap for Marijuana News Privately owned Internet Access Avast Review Powerful Deal Achievement Top Rated Free VPN Services Adaware Review – Is Adaware Review Right For You? Ideal Legit Snail mail Order Bride-to-be Sites To Decide On In 2023 & Feedback Thailänder Brides Pleasant Thai Mailbox Order Wedding brides To Marry Tes Powerful Interracial Marriages Exquisite Interracial Lovers How to begin a Successful Wife Search Getting married to a Russian Child The right way to Meet Delightful Ladies Around the World To recognize Know About Ukrainian Single Girls Dating The Different Types of Sugar Daddies The key benefits of Dating a Latina Top 5 International Dating Sites Russian Women Seeking Men Overseas Cookware Interracial Lovers and the Backlash Against All of them Getting the Marriage License and Wedding ceremony Done Correct How to pick the Best Web based Marriage Company Delightful Interracial Lovers Crucial Russian Females Dating Suggestions for Men Top five Romantic Honeymoon Destinations Just what Soulmate? Web based Relationships Suggestions Setting Expectations just for Online Sugar Daddy Arrangements Marital relationship License and Ceremony Why Are Latinas Heated? Getting Foreign Bride-to-be Tips on how to Propose — What’s the Best Way to Say “I Do”? Dating Etiquette — The Modern Rules of Seeing A Quick Guide to the Use of NLP in Chatbots How you can Have a cheerful Marriage The right way to Fix a Relationship With out Hurting Your companion How to Spice Up a lengthy Distance Relationship The main advantages of Online Dating What is the Best Female Race to Marry? Western european Women Stereotypes Why Asian Girls Like Bright white Guys How to Succeed in On the web Relationships Top 5 Online Connections Tips Top 5 Online Connections Tips Leading Countries With Best Foreign Brides Powerful Interracial Relationships Asian Wedding Icon Meanings Where to Find a Deliver Order Star of the wedding For what reason Asian Girls Like Light Guys Asian Brides Via the internet 5 Latina Wedding party Traditions Will possibly not Have Dreamed about When should you Stop Online dating Other People in Online Dating Latina Relationship Interaction Styles How to Find a Bride On line Good Interracial Relationships Oriental Wedding Practices Top five Online Relationships Tips The right way to Meet Overseas Woman and Create a Longer Distance Romantic relationship Where to Meet Latina Mail Buy Brides Where to get a Hot Asian Star of the event Precisely what is the Best Female Race to Marry? Mixte Marriage and Asian Ladies Mixte Marriage and Asian Ladies Mixte Marriage and Asian Ladies Handling Modern and Traditional Principles in Oriental Relationships Cookware Woman That Want to Marry Browse Online Dating Websites Reviews Ahead of You Subscribe What Country Offers the Best Wives? Singaporean Wedding Customs – Blending Tradition and Modernity Effective Interracial Partnerships Ways to Express Take pleasure in in a Long Distance Romantic relationship Marriage ceremony Tradition in Thailand Damaging Communication in Relationships The Best Place to Meet a very good Woman Amazon says this Prime Day was its biggest shopping event ever Kudlow says President Trump is 'so dissatisfied' with China trade talks that he is keeping the pressure on As stocks regain their footing, an ominous warning looms Goldman Sachs downgrades Clorox to sell, says valuation is 'unsustainably high' How Satya Nadella has spurred a tripling of Microsoft's stock price in just over four years Kudlow says economic growth could top 4% for 'a quarter or two,' more tax cuts could be coming The one chart that explains Netflix’s stunning comeback US housing starts plunge 12% in June to a nine-month low Aerospace titans Boeing and Airbus top $110 billion in orders at Farnborough Target uses Prime Day to its advantage, logging its 'biggest online shopping day' so far this year Billionaire Marc Lasry sees bitcoin reaching up to $40,000 as it becomes more mainstream and easier to trade These are the 10 US airports where you're most likely to be hacked Amazon shares slightly higher as investors await Prime Day results Wreck of Russian warship found, believed to hold gold worth $130 billion A bullish ‘phenomenon’ in bond market is weeks away from fading, top credit strategist says Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: MS, GOOGL, TXN, UAL, NFLX & more Twitter shares up 50% since late April means most upside priced in, analyst says in downgrade EU fines Google $5 billion over Android antitrust abuse Mortgage applications fall 2.5% as buyers struggle to find affordable homes America may not have the tools to counter the next financial crisis, warn Bernanke, Geithner and Paulson Investors are getting spooked as the risk of a no-deal Brexit rises EU expected to fine Google $5 billion over Android antitrust abuse Ex-FBI chief James Comey urges Americans to vote for Democrats in midterm elections Elon Musk apologizes to British cave diver following baseless 'pedo guy' claim Disney, Comcast and Fox: All you need to know about one of the biggest media battles ever Xiaomi shares notch new high after Hong Kong, mainland China stock exchanges reach agreement

Currency

Why the falling oil price isn’t hurting markets

INVESTORS could easily get confused about the impact of oil-price rises on the economy and markets. The story seemed to be clear: high prices bad, low prices good. The two great oil shocks in the 1970s were unambiguously bad for Western economies—ushering in stagflation and transferring spending power to the oil-producing countries. In turn, low oil prices in the late 1990s coincided with the dotcom boom.

But when oil fell in the second half of 2015, that was seen as a bearish sign for the global economy and markets. Now oil is falling again, with both Brent crude and West Texas intermediate dropping more than 20%. But the decline has barely made a dent in the upward march of the S&P 500 index.

  • Why the falling oil price isn’t hurting markets

  • Retail sales, producer prices, wages and exchange rates

  • Foreign reserves

  • How the euro zone deals with failing banks

  • The Supreme Court says offensive trademarks are protected speech

  • The hope for Democrats after special-election losses

The key to the differing market reaction is why the oil price is falling. Back in 2015, the fear was falling demand. Investors worried in particular that the Chinese economy was slowing. If that assumption had been right, demand for much more than oil would have suffered. The equity markets did not rebound property until the spring of 2016.

This time round, the issue seems to be excess supply. OPEC, a cartel of oil-producing countries, has been attempting to cut production. But its output increased in May, thanks extra activity in Libya, Nigeria and Iraq. Meanwhile, the attempts of the Saudis to cripple America’s fracking production seem to have failed; figures from Baker Hughes show that the number of American oil rigs has increased for 22 consecutive weeks. American oil producers, which had financial problems in 2015, seem to have reorganised themselves and can cope with a lower oil price. The oil price slump in 2015 caused a sell-off in bonds issued by those American producers. This time, says Jim Reid of Deutsche Bank, the spreads (excess interest rate) on such bonds have risen to 531 basis points (bp), the widest for the year; but that compares with 1932bp in 2016.

If cheap oil is caused by excess supply, it is the equivalent of a tax cut for Western consumers; that ought to be good for equities. It also means lower headline inflation, which may explain why Treasury bond yields have been drifting down; the ten-year yield is 2.15%. 

It seems like a big “but” is needed and here it comes. Any price is the balance between supply and demand and it is hard to tell which is the dominant force. Other commodity prices have also been weak; the Bloomberg commodity index is at a 12-month low. The Chinese authorities are tightening monetary policy again; the Federal Reserve is pushing up interest rates; hopes of a fiscal stimulus from President Donald Trump may have to wait until 2018. Low bond yields (and a flattening yield curve) are often seen as indicating a weaker economy. Markets could yet decide a weak oil price is a bad sign after all. 

Source: economist
Why the falling oil price isn’t hurting markets

Comments are closed.