Homepage / Share Market / Betting on market volatility? Here's what you need to know
Casino Güncel Giriş ile deneme bonusu veren siteleri keşfedin Kaydolun ve büyük kazançlar elde etmeye başlayın! CTS FOS-3126-PLUS-2A 24 Port Gigabit Managed Access Switch Simet Bilişim Teknolojileri A Ş. $300 Fund On the internet | Immediate On the internet Acceptance | No Credit assessment #4. Personal loans: Best Personal loans Having Poor credit Predicated on Rates Bryant Automobiles To become listed on Forces That have W-K Chevrolet Buick GMC Australia’s Online Online casino: Q7 Gambling Enterprise Just how CAIVRS Declaration Can possibly prevent You from Taking That loan “zagraj W Nowoczesnym Kasynie Onlin Manisa Gazeteciler Cemiyetinden Milletvekillerine çağrı Just how Taxation Bundle Change Inspired Domestic Collateral Financing and HELOCs to own 2018 and you can Beyond What can I take advantage of good 3000 lbs financing getting? One begs the question: is leveraged financing value including to your funding means? Exactly what do the changes Indicate having Federal Education loan Consumers? Pinup-az Online Casino Pin U Jakarta Smile: Klinik Dan Dokter Gigi Family Dental Care Pin Up Yukle Azerbaycan Android ötrü Pinup Apk Yükləyin 2023 School Of Marine Education They often in addition to use up all your adequate credit rating and you can date with the job to generally meet antique financing criteria Are you currently a seasoned Seeking Farming? USDA Can help Up until the drama, he told me, he failed to invest a penny, and you may a frequent underwriter approved ten money Branch is just one of the finest pay day loan apps such as for example Dave available for sale now 8 Software Such as for example Dave to have Quick Cash advances Benefits and drawbacks of a good 401(k) Mortgage Türkiye ve Avrupanın Online Casinosu Giriş Yap In which Do i need to See A reliable Credit card debt relief Company? 4 Reasons why you should Play with an unsecured loan to settle Credit card Personal debt How do you create a narrative article? Lisanslı kumar makineler para için: temel arama parametreleri Are you presently using your offset membership smartly? Just how much Should you Lay out to your a good $20,100 Vehicle? two hundred Buck Financing: How to get Immediate Put Exact same Date? Contrary Mortgage against. House Security Mortgage against. HELOC: That is Greatest? Expected in order to co-sign? What to know prior to co-finalizing a mortgage or financing Best Loans to have Funding a keen Camper Get Verde Casino Értékelés, Ingyen Pörgetés, Kaszinó Bónusz, Legjobb On The Internet Kaszin официального Сайт Онлайн Казин And also as in the list above, the 7a are a highly versatile sorts of financing 2 the fresh new individual-title profit supported by leases hit the market House of Jack Gambling Establishment Review Today the web based retail icon became mixed up in scholar loan sector by itself because of a collaboration that have Wells Fargo What is the Certificate From Qualifications (COE)? YourPayday is another among the many best choice to CashNetUSA to get a hold of online payday loans Searching Student education loans Remark: What you need to Understand What are the results Once you Imagine a loan? Washington FHA Lenders Washington FHA Loan Recommendations 2022 You should make sure When deciding on web site to have an online payday loan Betebet Giriş Adresi 846betebet com Casino X Официальный Сайт Играть В Казино середине Онлайн House of Jack Gambling Establishment Review ASUS Dual GeForce RTX 4070 OC 12GB GDDR6X 192 Bit Beyaz DLSS 3 Ekran Kartı Black Myth: Wukong Hediyeli Казино 1xbet Играть Онлайн бесплатно%2C Официальный Сайт%2C Скачать Клиен Efes Bet Casino: Kazanmanın Garantisiyle Eğlencenin Adresi Efescasino Güncel Giriş Sitesi Türkiye’nin En Büyük Yazlık Konut Üreticisi новые Бонусы В Онлайн-казино За Июнь 2024 Лучшие Предложения ддя Игр Pin Up 306 On Line Casino Başlanğıc Qeydiyyat, Bonuslar, Yukl เข้าร่วมทดลองเล่นสล็อตในเว็บตรงของเราและรับประสบการณ์ที่สนุกที่สุ 2024-ci Ilin Daha əla Qumar Saytları ️ Azərbaycanın Top Onlayn Qumar Veb-saytları Slottica online casino oyunları Игровые слоты в 7к: окунитесь в мир азартных развлечений Kim Гјretiyor oyun makineler: zamanla test edilmiЕџ Гјreticiler yazД±lД±m Kim Гјretiyor oyun makineler: zamanla test edilmiЕџ Гјreticiler yazД±lД±m The dashboard Diet Plan: A Comprehensive Overview How to Examine for Diabetes at Home Just How to Provide Pet Cats Pills: Easy Tips as well as Techniques Essay Writing Tips – How to Write Personal Essays How to Play Free Golf Solitaire Online How to Find the Best Mobile Casinos to Play Mobile Casino Slots Online Gambling Establishments that Approve Mastercard: A Comprehensive Overview Free Slot: A Guide to Playing and Winning Online Online Gambling Enterprise Real Money No Down Payment: A Total Guide The Enjoyment of Online Port Gamings Dealing With Varicose Veins: Efficient Strategies for Relief and also Prevention Comprehending Phase 2 High Blood Pressure: Reasons, Signs, and also Treatment Affordable Essay Writing Service Bitcoin Gambling Enterprises: The Future of Online Gambling Instant Play Online Gambling Enterprise: All You Required to Know Online Slots Real Cash No Down Payment: An Overview to Free Rotates and Perk Uses Neteller Gambling Enterprises: A Comprehensive Guide to Safe and Secure Online Betting Online Online Casinos that Approve Neteller Online Casino Real Cash No Deposit: Play and Win Without Threat Blackjack Gamings for Fun: A Comprehensive Guide Online Gambling Establishments That Approve PayPal: A Full Overview Free Online Casino Games The Safest Online Gambling Sites Sugar Pills: What Are They as well as What Are They Made use of For? Why Are My Veins So Blue? Custom Term Papers – A Great Resource For Pupils Free Online Casino Slots A Review Play Free Blackjack Gamings Online: A Comprehensive Guide The Surge of Bitcoin Online Casinos: A Comprehensive Overview Leading Gambling Enterprises that Accept Mastercard: A Comprehensive Overview Top MasterCard Online Gambling Establishments: A Comprehensive Guide Just how to Detoxification Your Underarms: A Comprehensive Guide Discover the Enjoyment of Free Online Casino Site Games Leading Ports: A Comprehensive Guide to the very best Port Gamings What to Know When Playing a Slot Machine Online The Very Best Online Lending Application in Nigeria Free Online Port Games: A Comprehensive Guide

Share Market

Betting on market volatility? Here's what you need to know

Historic low market volatility is spurring investors to find returns in new places, with some rushing their money into what is sometimes referred to as “the most dangerous trade in the world.”

In a research note to clients, David Lafferty, chief market strategist at Natixis Asset Management, explained that super-low volatility has spurred a new sub-industry – “shorting” volatility with a number of exchange-traded funds and derivative products that have a “V” in their tickers.

The CBOE Volatility Index, or VIX, is a key measure of market expectations of a near-term volatility conveyed by S&P 500 stock index option prices. The VIX, widely considered as a measure of fear and uncertainty in the market, closed the day after the French election on May 9 at 9.77, its lowest level since December 1993. The VIX is currently trading at 10.4 and is down 26 percent year-to-date.

“During this period of low volatility, shorting volatility has become incredibly profitable,” Lafferty explained. Shorting refers to a trading technique where investors bet that an asset or security will fall in price.

“To the casual observer this may seem odd: Shorting an investment profitably requires borrowing and selling the asset now while later repurchasing it at a lower price (and pocketing the difference). But volatility hasn’t been falling. It fell dramatically after the Great Financial Crisis and, with some sporadic exceptions, has remained mired below 15 in the past several months – and more recently below 10.”

In July, Boris Schlossberg of BK Asset Management, told CNBC that betting on unusual volatility could be “the most dangerous trade.” He referred to the XIV exchange-traded note, a product designed to deliver the inverse performance of the VIX index.

This could be “the most dangerous trade in the world,” according to the macro strategist. “It’s already had a massive run up because we’ve had very low volatility,” but at this point, “it’s very likely that volatility is going to increase,” Schlossberg told CNBC’s Trading Nation.

Flows into the XIV have surged as much as 100 percent since the start of this year.

So how do you short volatility? Lafferty explained that shorting volatility profitability doesn’t depend on lower VIX levels. “Shorting volatility is really just a bet on the status quo – that markets won’t change that much.”

“The futures market for VIX is usually in contango ( futures prices are higher than spot prices ) so investors reap steady profits as the futures contracts that are sold at higher prices are repurchased later (i.e., rolled over) closer to the lower spot price,” he added.

Contango is a situation where the future spot price is below the current price, and people are willing to pay more for a commodity at some point in the future than the actual expected price of the commodity.

While low periods of volatility are not good for markets, analysts have warned that the risk of market complacency has increased. Therefore, traders continue to implement hedging strategies to mitigate possible periods of higher volatility.

“The interesting thing about VIX is that most people look at it as high or low and they say if it is low it must spike but basically what the volatility tells you are expected fluctuations and right now what you have is realized volatility which is very low,” Runestone Capital co-founder Rune Madsen told CNBC Wednesday.

“VIX is measuring future volatility, implied volatility and that is low. Fewer people want to make big bets on large moves when it hasn’t occurred for such a long time.”

Madsen further explained that the VIX can move rapidly and when people trade VIX-related products they tend to trade futures tied to it.

“The future prices right now are higher than the spot prices so the VIX can maybe move 50 percent in a day and then you see the futures move maybe 7-8 percent. If then you are betting on a higher price and you know that the curve is in contango, you will need to see a fairly decent move for you to be in profit. The moves can be much larger on the upside than on the downside,” Madsen added.

The VIX has closed 17 times below 10 this year and close to 50 times below 11 over the past decade. Last month, the index hit 9.3, its lowest level since December 1993 when the VIX hit a low of 8.89. While events such as earnings reports and economic data don’t massively impact the index, big events such as geopolitical risks, political uncertainty, and turmoil can be a big mover for the index.

“Clearly Apple has a market moving effect but normal earnings for more other companies have little effect on the volatility of the S&P 500. So we don’t take earnings or economic numbers into effect because it is extremely random and there is nothing systematic about it,” Runestone’s Madsen told CNBC.

The VIX is down 74 percent since the global financial crisis of September 2008. The index hit a massive 80.86 in November 2008 – the days following the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers. More recently, the VIX is down more than 36 percent since the U.K. voted to leave the European Union, 25 percent since the U.S. elections and 28 percent since the start of the year.

The index continues to trade at record low levels currently. Ashok Shah, investment director at London & Capital, says the environment is difficult because betting on volatility hasn’t really provided the necessary payoff, given the benign market environment.

“We are still in a world where because of the flood of liquidity, the volatility level in the economic cycles has calmed down, which is how the real volatility in the earnings and corporate events happen. So the big driver continues to suppress the volatility down. We are at the early stage where excess liquidity is going to be slowly tapered off and then drain eventually so we will make the lows in the (coming) weeks and move the index (higher) probably in the next 6-12 months,” Shah added.

So are investors doing the right thing by betting on the status quo – that markets won’t change that much? Natixis’ Lafferty outlines two clear implications. “One, investors should be seeking out safer or lower-risk ways to remain invested. That is, to maintain participation in risk assets but with less downside.”

The second implication, Lafferty explained, is investors should remain hyper-vigilant about the global economy and earnings trends. “It is even more important today as neither central bankers nor troublesome valuations are an investor’s friend. Right now, the entire world is short volatility.”

Follow CNBC International on Twitter and Facebook.

Source: cnbc europe
Betting on market volatility? Here's what you need to know

Comments are closed.