Homepage / Currency / How do you solve a problem like Korea? Investors are unsure
Find the best site for bisexual women tips Welcome toward most useful millionaire chat rooms in the web Hook up with regional black singles now Mostbet giriş şəxsi hesab Azərbaycan I Did Not Put You Into The “Buddy Area,” We’re Not Right For One Another Чехол книжка Samsung M146 Galaxy M14, Leather Case Fold, Dark Red, Красный купить по цене 286 грн в Киеве и Украине Чехол для Huawei Nova 9 SE Купить чехлы Nova 9 SE Чехол для Oukitel iiiF150 B2 Ultra Купить чехлы iiiF150 B2 Ultra what exactly is craigslist and exactly how does it connect people? สล็อตPG เว็บตรงไม่ผ่านเอเย่นต์ PGOSCAR SLOT WALLET 2022 สล็อตเว็บตรง เล่น บาคาร่า ออนไลน์ แตกง่าย เล่นง่ายได้เงินจริง เกมสล็อตออนไลน์ยอดนิยม รวมทุกค่าย จ่ายจริง PG SLOT 5G พีจีสล็อตเว็บตรง ฝาก-ถอนไม่มีขั้นต่ำ ไม่ต้องทำเทิร์น 2023 สล็อตPG เว็บตรงไม่ผ่านเอเย่นต์ PGOSCAR SLOT WALLET 2022 สล็อตPG เว็บตรงไม่ผ่านเอเย่นต์ PGOSCAR SLOT WALLET 2022 Casino Betorspin Sitesi Kapsamlı İncelemesi Rabona Casino Online【Full Review & Bonus Offers】 Welcome towards gay dad chat community Find your perfect match on most readily useful cougar chat site The Interesting World of Psychic Readings Opening the Mysteries of Online Tarot Reading Free Numerology Test: Opening the Secrets of Your Life Course Numerology Predictions by Day of Birth The advantages of making use of a gay bear website what exactly is a cougar and just why in the event you find one? Create your profile and begin communicating with your ideal partners Understanding the initial challenges of older and younger lesbians Find the perfect black milf for you Looking for love? bbw lesbians are here to help Is My Husband Gay? 10 Alarming Indicators He Might Be – Her Norm Ramenbet Раменбет ️ Играть Онлайн На Деньги ️ Зеркало Ramen Be Join our community and luxuriate in the advantages of being bi How to Text an Older Woman you love and hold Her Interested Join our growing community of interracial dating enthusiasts today Get ready for an incredible experience Get started with this local fuck buddies finder today Vulkan Vegas Promo Computer Code Mit Freispielen Ebenso Bonusguthaben Find discreet love online: a good option for discreet dating Find quick gay sex now Find the best partner: methods for choosing the right girl Get ready for an unforgettable bondage dating experience สล็อตเว็บตรง เว็บแท้ 2024 ฝากถอนไม่มีขั้นต่ำ รองรับวอเลท อันดับ 1 slot All of Ireland will be screaming for Samcro and there’s no Cheltenham thrill like it Aktuelle Casino Bonus Codes 2024 Auch für Bestandskunden Aktuelle Casino Bonus Codes 2024 Auch für Bestandskunden Meet new people and explore a world of possibilities Find an ideal chubby mature lesbian match today Opening the Mysteries: Free Online Tarot Tarot Card Reading Free: An In-Depth Overview Tarot 101: A Comprehensive Guide to Recognizing Tarot Cards Free Tarot Card Reading Online: Everything You Need to Know Unlocking the Mysteries of Online Tarot Card Free Numerology Calculator: Unlocking the Secrets of Numbers The Ultimate Guide to Lotus Tarot: Every Little Thing You Required to Know Unlocking the Mysteries of Numerology Psychic Reviewing Cards Free: Opening the Mysteries of deep space Tarot Guide: Opening the Mysteries of the Cards The Power of Free Daily Tarot Card Analysis The Advantages of Daily Tarot Reviewing The Comprehensive Guide to Psychic Analysis The Ultimate Guide to Biddy Tarot Card Opening the World of Online Psychics Numerology Predictions by Day of Birth The Power of Tarot Free Online The Duty of a Fortuneteller in Modern Culture Unlocking the Keys of Calculator Numerology Checking out the Globe of Lotus Tarot Card Analysis The Remarkable World of Tarot Card Cards The Power of One Card Tarot Card Analysis Tarot Analysis Online: A Comprehensive Overview Tarot Card Cards Free Analysis: Unlocking the Mysteries of deep space The Ultimate Guide to Tarot Card Online Reading Unlocking the Mysteries of Tarot Readings completely free Name Numerology: Unlocking the Power of Numbers in Your Name The Ultimate Guide to Tarot Card: Introducing the Mysteries of the Cards Find Numerology Call by Date of Birth Numerology Calculator: A Comprehensive Guide Numerology Calculator: Unlocking the Keys of Numbers Tarot Free Online: Letting Loose the Power of the Cards The Art of Tarot Card Cards Analysis Free Tarot Analysis Free: A Comprehensive Overview The Secrets of Tarot Card Analysis: Revealing the Mysteries The Ultimate Guide to Tarot Analysis Cards Opening the Mysteries of Lotus Tarot Analysis for Free Finest Spots In Order To Meet Girls In Chihuahua & Dating Guide – WorldDatingGuides Appreciation Is Not A Lie, It Can’t Be | Autostraddle Find your perfect bisexual hook up now 1xSlots Casino Revisão Receber Bonus R$7500 + 150 RG Finest Places To Meet Up With Babes In Lahore & Dating Guide – WorldDatingGuides 1xSlots Casino: Avaliação do Site 2024 Bonus-Jogos DateInAsia Review | DateInAsia Application | DateInAsia.com Reviews Get to know brazilian sex contacts and luxuriate in the ride Intercourse Diary: The Girl Faking Work to Get Away The Woman House Guest Casino Markası 7slots giriş Site Yorumu Kumarhane 7slots giriş Sitesi Testi test Best Crossdresser Hookup Sites – Take To Brand New Experience With Femboys Golden Pokies Casino Review MarryMe2024 How to find the perfect date in guatemala g

Currency

How do you solve a problem like Korea? Investors are unsure

EUROPEAN markets have started the day with losses of 1% or so, following a 2% decline in Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index and the 1% loss in the S&P 500 index on Thursday. The Vix, a much used measure of market fear, jumped to 16, its highest level since the Presidential election.

These are significant moves by the standards of recent months but, to anyone who lived through 2008 (or 1987) they are hardly signs of outright panic. Gold is at $1,288 an ounce, up “5 or so over the week. The Japanese stockmarket was barely changed today, and Japan is right in the firing line of North Korea’s missiles. South Korea would suffer terribly in any war but the Seoul market was down just 1.7% today, and 3.2% on the week.

  • How do you solve a problem like Korea? Investors are unsure

  • How Brazil’s Michel Temer is clinging on to power

  • The ACLU stands up for an alt-right author’s freedom of speech

  • Ryanair drops plans to serve Ukraine

  • British university rankings

  • British university rankings methodology

Clearly, the markets are more worried than they were on August 9th, when President Trump warned of “fire and fury” against Kim Jong-Un’s regime. Investoirs didn’t take too seriously the statement from the President, who is known for his intemperate (and often factually inaccurate) tweets. But the rhetroic has deteriorated since then, with North Korea threatening to fire missiles close to Guam, a US territory and naval base, and Mr Trump doubling down on his comments on Thursday.

War in Korea might lead to millions of deaths and would create an immense challenge to the relationship between the US and China, North Korea’s only ally. Aside from the humanitarian cost, the potential disruption to the global economy would be large. So why aren’t investors showing even greater concern?

Simon Derrick at BNY Mellon sums up the attitude well

The most compelling argument as to why markets have become so indifferent to geopolitics is that, broadly speaking, this has proved to be a winning strategy since 2003.

Memories of the market impact of the Gulf War between August 1990 and February 1991 meant that when the invasion of Iraq began in March of 2003 investors spent a good deal of time was spent considering possible outcomes. However, to a large degree, this proved a waste of time with the VIX falling steadily from the moment of the invasion onwards while US equity indices entered a bull market that would effectively last until the summer of 2007. In the event the only thing that appeared to matter was the fact that the FOMC was continuing to ease monetary policy.

Given the extraordinary levels of monetary policy easing by all major central banks seen since them and that no geopolitical event has led to an outcome that was perceived as being a direct threat to mainstream markets, it makes sense that investors collectively have learnt to ignore these risks. However, at last year proved, it takes just one or two events occurring that show the perceived wisdom to be wrong for a profound shift in investor behaviour to emerge.

Another argument is that the consequences of war, particularly if it goes nuclear, are so horrific that we will have other things to worry about. Here is Rabobank

We would suggest that the small size of the moves (on a historic basis) is reflective of the extreme difficulty the market faces in pricing in the ramifications of a nuclear confrontation.

In essence, the problem is this. President Trump’s comments about North Korea promised “fire and fury” if the country kept threatening the US. Firing missiles close to Guam, which the North Koreans have promised to do, is a definite threat. So does that count as a casus belli? Missiles have fallen into the sea near Japan in the recent past without provoking war. Mr Trump might not want to back down from his rhetoric. On the other hand, he could be playing “bad cop” to the more measured “good cop” statements of Rex Tillerson, secretary of state, and General Mattis, secretary of defence – with the aim of forcing China to take more decisive action against Kim Jong Un. Then again, perhaps the difference in rhetoric reflects a lack of coordination within the Trump administration, something that has been seen on many issues.

President Trump has not followed through of many of his other promises, so most investors probably think this will be another example. And, for once, they will be relieved a US President didn’t keep his word.  

NextWhere might the next crisis come from?

Source: economist
How do you solve a problem like Korea? Investors are unsure

Comments are closed.